Neither $100k nor $1M: VanEck reveals the exact price Bitcoin could reach if it meets this condition.

A VanEck report projects that Bitcoin could be worth $2,9 million by 2050. Discover the analysis behind this base case scenario and BTC's role as a global reserve asset against sovereign debt.

Asset manager VanEck has updated its long-term valuation models with a figure that defies conventional projections. According to its latest research, led by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach a price of $2,9 million per unit by 2050This forecast is not based on short-term retail speculation, but on the fundamental integration of cryptocurrency within the international monetary system.

The analysis starts from a central premise: the transformation of Bitcoin from a risky asset to a structural component of the world economy. 

The authors argue that, if current trends in financial digitization and the decline of fiat currencies continue, Bitcoin could simultaneously solidify its position as an efficient medium of exchange and a critical store of value for institutions and governments. Furthermore, this future valuation for the leading cryptocurrency assumes a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% over the next few decades, which would position Bitcoin as a necessary counterweight to the expansionary fiscal policies of major powers.

Bitcoin as a hub of international trade and a strategic reserve asset

The main driver behind this multimillion-dollar valuation lies in what VanEck calls the "Liquidation Pivot"The firm projects that, by mid-century, the Bitcoin network could process up to 10% of international trade and 5% of global domestic trade. This market share would mean that central banks and multinational corporations would use the network not only to store value, but also to settle cross-border transactions more quickly and neutrally than traditional SWIFT systems.

At the same time, the report highlights the "Reserve Pivot"This phenomenon is driven by the erosion of confidence in traditional sovereign assets. G7 economies continue to increase their debt levels, weakening the perceived safety of their bonds and currencies. In this context, central banks are seeking to diversify their holdings to mitigate systemic risks.

VanEck estimates that monetary authorities could allocate approximately 2,5% of their total assets to Bitcoin. This decision would follow a similar logic to gold accumulation, but leveraging the digital advantages of the cryptocurrency.

According to report In contrast to government debt, which carries counterparty risk, or physical gold, which presents logistical challenges, Bitcoin offers immutable and globally transferable ownership. Its historically low correlation with the stock market and its inverse relationship with the US dollar index (DXY) reinforce its usefulness as an institutional hedging tool against currency devaluation.

Financial projections: From the conservative scenario to hyperbitcoinization

VanEck's valuation model is not linear and considers three possible divergent futures, depending on the degree of adoption and the global regulatory response. The base scenario, which yields the figure of $2,9 million per BTCIt represents a balance where Bitcoin is firmly established without completely replacing fiat currencies, coexisting as a robust parallel system.

However, the report also considers the extremes. In a bearish scenario, characterized by severe regulatory restrictions or a failure in technological adoption, the price could stagnate around $130.000. Even in this pessimistic view, the asset would maintain significant value, although its function would be limited to a niche market with a compound annual growth rate of just 2%.

At the opposite extreme is the «hyperbitcoinizationThis optimistic scenario describes a world where distrust in the fiat system accelerates the mass migration to hard assets. According to the firm, if Bitcoin were to capture 20% of global trade and become the dominant reserve asset, partially displacing gold and Treasury bonds, its price could skyrocket. even up to $53,4 million per coinUnder these conditions, Bitcoin's market capitalization would represent a substantial fraction of all global financial assets.

It's important to note that the path to any of these goals will not be without turbulence. VanEck warns that volatility will remain an intrinsic characteristic of the asset, fluctuating between 40% and 70% annually, similar to the behavior of large technology companies in their early stages.

Bitcoin in the face of the new financial paradigm

In summary, VanEck's research underscores a shift in narrative: Bitcoin is no longer evaluated solely by its four-year market cycles, but by its long-term macroeconomic utility. 

The firm's projection that the cryptocurrency could reach $2,9 million in the next 25 years reflects the anticipation of a dual financial system, where Bitcoin's algorithmic efficiency complements or replaces the inefficiencies of traditional banking. For users and investors, this analysis suggests that holding cryptocurrency could transcend the pursuit of immediate returns, becoming a wealth preservation mechanism in the face of an uncertain fiscal landscape in the coming decades.