The big mistake that led to FTX's bankruptcy: The discounted gems that are now unicorns

Forbes analyzed how FTX's shares in Anthropic and SpaceX, sold at a discount after bankruptcy, have become multi-billion dollar assets.

The theoretical valuation of the risky investment portfolio constructed by Sam Bankman-Fried before the FTX collapse in 2022 Today, it presents figures that challenge the magnitude of its sentence. 

According to recent reports published by Forbes, the pool of holdings managed primarily through AlamedaResearch It would have experienced massive growth, placing its potential value close to an additional $100.000 billion. 

This portfolio, comprised of early investments in sectors that now dominate the technology market, is fragmented or liquidated under the bankruptcy process still overseen by the US justice system. 

While the founder of the defunct platform serves a sentence of 25 years in prisonThe performance of assets in artificial intelligence and aerospace technology has reopened the debate about the strategic vision that preceded the fraud. From this perspective, the current figures reflect a market recovery that, had it not been for the liquidity crisis, would have solidified Bankman Fried's position as one of the most influential figures in global private equity.

Investments in Anthropic and Cursor: The rise of AI in Alameda's portfolio

Beyond conventional metrics, the central thesis of the reports indicates that Bankman-Fried executed financial maneuvers in companies positioned at the forefront of current technological innovation. However, the bankruptcy management prevented FTX's victims from fully realizing this potential, as the court-appointed liquidators prematurely sold off the most valuable shares to cover immediate debts.

According to Forbes analysisOne of the most significant investments was in anthropicThis artificial intelligence company, a direct competitor of OpenAI, maintains an estimated valuation of close to $900.000 billion at the time of this writing. Industry experts, such as Rory O'Driscoll Scale Venture Partners describes these bets as visions ahead of the massive rise of generative tools. 

The paradox is that the 8% stake that FTX owned in Anthropic was liquidated in 2024 for only $1.300 billion, missing out on a revaluation that today would exceed $60.000 billion.

In line with this analysis, O'Driscoll points out that identifying the potential of firms like Cursor —recently valued at $60.000 billion after strategic agreements with SpaceX— before the ChatGPT phenomenon demonstrates a rare technical selection capability in the pre-2021 environment.

Furthermore, according to Forbes, this exponential growth is not limited to software, but extends to the frontier of private exploration.

Indirect exposure to SpaceXThe stake, obtained through the investment vehicle K5 Global, allowed the bankruptcy estate to partially benefit from the commercial takeoff of Elon Musk's company, following a legal agreement that preserved said stake. This is in addition to the recovery of public assets such as Solana and Robinhood, which, after the systemic collapse of 2022, regained ground on stock exchanges and digital markets, allowing creditors to recover liquidity.

As a result of this evolution, the firm's analysts emphasize that this portfolio "shone for its successes," managing to capitalize on the post-pandemic technological recovery in sectors with high barriers to entry. However, the financial tragedy lies in the fact that this success and incredible investment vision were forged while the main infrastructure of FTX was suffering an operating deficit of $8.000 billionThis ultimately triggered judicial intervention and forced the sale of these assets at a loss before they reached their true historical peak.

Forbes points out the hidden cost of instant liquidity

Following this late revaluationThe discrepancy between the current market value and what was recovered by the bankruptcy administrators marks a critical point in the compensation of the victims. 

The Forbes report details that a large portion of these holdings were subject to forced liquidation under the supervision of court-appointed trustees. The primary objective of these sales was to obtain immediate liquidity to pay creditorsThis resulted in transactions carried out at significant discounts compared to the prices these companies fetch today. While there isn't much that can be done now, the Forbes scenario presents a massive opportunity cost: had the stakes in Anthropic or SpaceX been held throughout the 2024-2025 bull market, the bankruptcy surplus would have far exceeded the original debts to customers.

Despite the compelling nature of this data, Bankman-Fried's legal status remains unchanged in the eyes of the law. The United States Attorney's Office maintains that the capital used for these visionary investments came from FTX customer funds obtained illegallyAnd the judicial system does not consider the subsequent success of investments as a mitigating factor for the original crime. In fact, Judge Lewis Kaplan recently rejected Bankman-Fried's request for a new trial, ruling that his arguments lacked technical and legal merit. 

In practice, the benefits generated by the growth of AI and the aerospace sector only serve to bolster payments to those affected—who will receive between 118% and 143% of the value of their claims—, while the theoretical value of $100.000 billion remains as a statistical record of what could have been a financial empire.