Is Satoshi's treasure vulnerable? Experts analyze the risk that quantum computing poses to the 2,3 million dormant BTC from Bitcoin's foundational era.
The advancement of quantum computing is at the heart of the technical debate in 2026. As the processing capabilities of giants like Google shorten execution times, the most robust blockchain network on the planet faces uncomfortable questions about its very architecture. Analysts' focus is not on the security of current transactions, which maintain an extremely high standard of protection, but rather on the digital legacy of the crypto protocol's early years.
Charles HoskinsonThe founder of Cardano has put figures to this concern that is circulating in governance forums: there are approximately 2.300.000 bitcoins in wallets with permanently exposed public keys. These coins, which mostly belong to the Satoshi Nakamoto eraThey lack an active owner who can migrate them to post-quantum security standards.
Buy Bitcoin securely hereThe vulnerability of Bitcoin orphan funds
Bitcoin's original architecture used an address format known as P2PK (Pay to Public Key)where the public key is directly visible on the blockchain. However, in modern addresses, the protocol works differently; now the public key is only revealed when the user decides to move their funds, remaining protected by a hashing process while the account is at rest.
For experts, this technical difference is what defines the line of defense against a hypothetical quantum attack. A sufficiently powerful processor could perform the reverse calculation to obtain the private key of these old wallets without the owner's intervention.
Current expert estimates suggest that the 34% A significant portion of the total BTC supply is located within this exposure radius. For an active user, the solution is simple: transfer their balance to an address generated under new quantum resistance protocols.
However, the real conflict arises with the coins that remain in old addresses, mainly those attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto—which exceed one million units—and those of other pioneers who have disappeared or lost access to their keys. According to experts, with no one behind them to execute a migration to new directions, those funds could become a static target.
In this regard, Hoskinson maintains that this is not an attempt to create alarm, but rather to address the deepest governance gap in the network's history. If these coins were to suddenly change value due to an external decryption by a quantum computer, the blockchain's narrative of immutability would suffer an unprecedented shock to public trust.
Freeze or migrate: The BIP-361 debate
While this debate The situation intensifies and the community seeks technical answers; initiatives such as the proposed improvement emerge. BIP-361Some Bitcoin developers are proposing a transition plan to reduce the attack surface of quantum computing by phasing out legacy signatures. This proposal suggests forcing users to adopt post-quantum wallets through a multi-phase approach. In the first stage, the network would stop accepting transactions directed to the most vulnerable address formats. Subsequently, the plan is to completely invalidate ECDSA- and Schnorr-based signatures, effectively freezing any funds that haven't been updated before the migration window closes.
Jameson LoppLopp, a leading expert in digital asset security, has entered this discussion with a pragmatic stance. For Lopp, it's preferable that the network decide. freeze 5.600.000 BTC considered at risk rather than allowing a quantum attacker to take control of them.
Lopp's approach intensifies the internal division between those who defend the immutability of the blockchain as a sacred principle and those who believe that Bitcoin's systemic survival justifies exceptional intervention measures. The authors of BIP-361 even suggest recovery windows based on zero knowledge tests for those who demonstrate ownership through their seed phrases, attempting to balance security with the right to property.
Trade securely with Bitcoin at Bit2MeThe need for coordination and deadlines in the new computing era
Beyond the potential solutions being debated by the community, the timeframe for implementing them is also generating friction among analysts and experts. While firms like Bernstein see this process as a standard technology upgrade cycle, similar to what was represented followed At the time, other sectors warned that the window of safety was narrowing rapidly.
In its latest report, Google suggested that practical quantum attacks could become a reality around 2029, giving the Bitcoin developer community a mere three years to achieve global consensus. Decentralized coordination is typically slow, and reaching an agreement on the fate of old funds promises to be the most complex governance process since the block size disputes on the network.
Other technical paths remain on the table, such as proposals from StarkWare researchers seeking to avoid a soft fork through alternative transaction routes. However, the market is beginning to look closely not only at the development of quantum processors, but also at the political responsiveness of blockchain. Figures such as Michael saylor They maintain an optimistic view, downplaying the urgency of the problem under the premise that the supply chain has enough flexibility to adapt.
However, it's clear that in 2026, the debate about the impact of quantum computing on Bitcoin is no longer purely academic. How the network manages its "lost coins" could determine whether it maintains its status as an immutable store of value or is forced to rewrite its rules to survive quantum supremacy.
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