Bitcoin and the four-year theory: Why does Scaramucci predict a rally at the end of the year?

Is the four-year Bitcoin 2026 theory reliable? After the correction from $126.000, Anthony Scaramucci argues that the cycle is still in effect.

The cryptocurrency ecosystem is currently undergoing a period of review and analysis following Bitcoin's (BTC) correction, which saw it drop from its all-time highs of nearly $126.000 to around $60.000 over the past six months. This decline has sparked widespread debate among analysts and investors about whether the historical price patterns that have shaped the asset's trajectory in past cycles remain valid today.

Amid this broad debate, not everyone views the outlook pessimistically. The renowned investor Anthony Scaramucci, managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, believes that the market structure continues to be guided by traditional four-year cycles which have characterized Bitcoin's behavior since its inception. In his opinion, the current movement is a normal correction, driven by factors such as market psychology and profit-taking after reaching key valuation levels.

Meanwhile, the global macroeconomic environment and geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Despite this, analysts are increasingly anticipating a possible [unclear - possibly "referring to a potential ... cyclical recovery towards the end of this year, supported by the historical pattern that has demonstrated the resilience of the crypto market over time.

The arrival of institutional capital redefines the course of the Bitcoin market

The injection of more than $1.300 billion into the market through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during March and the active entry of renowned institutions, such as Morgan Stanley —which recently he presented Their own spot Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) with one of the lowest fees in the market—are driving a significant transformation in Bitcoin market liquidity.

During an interview with the channel The Wolf of All StreetsScaramucci noted that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains valid. However, he pointed out that market behavior has changed following the influx of institutional capital. explainedThe bear market has been influenced by both the cyclical nature of the asset and the massive sell-off by large holders around $100.000, a level he described as "psychologically key" for investors.

"I'm on the side that we're in a four-year cycle... by the fourth quarter of this year you'll start to see the traditional movement.", Scaramucci noted.

Price prediction: Towards $150.000 in Q4?

Although the most aggressive Bitcoin price forecasts have moderated, the consensus among technical analysts suggests that the current period of stagnation is the prelude to a breakout. If the four-year cycle maintains its statistical accuracy, as Scaramucci predicts, the fourth quarter of 2026 could be the starting point for a renewed push towards the $150,000 per BTC level.

This "breathing" phase, according to experts, is identical to the consolidation of early 2023. For the strategic investor, the data suggests that blockchain infrastructure and regulatory adoption in the US are laying the groundwork for sustained growth, far removed from the purely narrative bubbles of the past.