Time to buy or wait? Analysts identify a key "No Trading Zone" for Bitcoin today

Bitcoin has reclaimed the psychological $70.000 mark after a 2,74% surge in the last few hours. We analyze how the US ultimatum in the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis, and institutional purchases by Strategy are shaping crypto market volatility today.

The cryptocurrency market faces a day of high tension, marked by a direct correlation with global macroeconomic and geopolitical events. 

In the last few hours, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has recovered by 2,74%. trading again above the $70.000 markAfter experiencing a drop that placed its price at the $68.000 support level hours earlier, this movement in the leading cryptocurrency's price comes amid international uncertainty, where tensions between the United States and Iran and instability in the energy market are dictating the pace of risk assets.

Today, investors' attention is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. The ultimatum issued by the US administration to guarantee the opening of the commercial passage expires this Monday night. The situation has driven oil prices above $100 a barrel, fueling global inflationary fears. As a result, Bitcoin is acting —in the short term— as a liquid asset and sensitive to the macroeconomy, reflecting the nervousness of traditional markets but demonstrating, at the same time, remarkable technical resilience by recovering key price levels.

Bitcoin is moving today in tandem with the conflict in the Middle East.

Bitcoin's current price dynamics cannot be understood without considering the energy and diplomatic landscape. The possibility of a complete closure or blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a supply shock in crude oil, which historically translates into upward inflationary pressure. In this scenario, Bitcoin has exhibited fluctuations that mimic the volatility of stocks and the beta sector, driven not by internal protocol catalysts, but by its role as a global liquidity thermometer.

The drop to $68.000 just a few hours ago was a direct response to the increase in war rhetoric. However, the rapid recovery above $70.000 suggests that there is a latent demand ready to absorb the sales caused by the panic. 

Analysts agree that the expiration of the deadline set by the United States for Iran tonight will be the decisive turning point. A de-escalation of this conflict could trigger a relief rally, while an increase in hostilities in the region would maintain selling pressure on financial and digital assets.

The "No Trade Zone" detected by experts

Despite the external noise, on-chain data offers a perspective of quiet but steady accumulation. According to analyst Ali Martinez, the behavior of cryptocurrency investors suggests long-term confidence in Bitcoin. 

In the last 24 hours, approximately 10.000 BTC, valued at around $700 million, have been removed from exchange platformsMartinez points out that this move reduces the available supply of BTC for immediate sale, which usually precedes periods of low bearish pressure.

However, the analyst also warns that Bitcoin is currently in what he calls a "Non-Trade Zone"Technically, the cryptocurrency is stuck, according to Martinez, in a critical range between $65.636 and $70.685. More than 1,72 million BTC have been traded within this narrow range, indicating a high-density zone where buyers and sellers are engaged in a constant power struggle. 

According to the analyst, the market will not experience a clear directional movement Until the price of BTC decisively breaks through the $70.685 ceiling or loses the $65.636 support level. For now, the expert's recommendation for short-term traders is caution and monitoring of these confluence levels.

“We won’t see the next big move until Bitcoin either breaks above $70.685 or below $65.636. 

For now, it's a matter of waiting.” Martinez wrote from his account on X.

Institutional support: Strategy increases its reserves despite uncertainty

While the market grapples with today's geopolitical volatility, major institutional players continue to execute their accumulation strategy. 

Strategy, the entity with the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world, has recently announced a new acquisition of 1.031 BTCThe purchase was made for approximately $76,6 million, at an average price of $74.326 per unit.

Michael Saylor, the company's CEO, confirmed via his social media that The firm has been increasing its exposure to Bitcoin through its financial vehiclesWith this latest transaction, Strategy now owns a total of 762.099 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $57.690 billion. 

For the market, this massive institutional support acts as a counterweight to daily volatility. The fact that a company of this magnitude continues to buy, even above the current market price, sends a a sign of strength regarding the fundamental value of Bitcoin in the face of the devaluation of fiat currencies and the instability of commodity markets.

In conclusion, Bitcoin's current performance reflects its maturity as a macroeconomic asset. The leading cryptocurrency is not only navigating technical support and resistance levels, but also amidst a sea of ​​international tensions.

With the market focused on the Strait of Hormuz and oil at record highs, the next few hours will be crucial in determining whether the return to $70.000 marks the start of a new upward trend or simply a pause amid the volatility storm.