Buy signals amid the crypto market crash: This indicator points to an opportunity that few are seeing.

Bitcoin registered a 12% drop in the last week, although several indicators suggest that the market may be approaching a recovery zone.

The second month of 2026 began with a pullback that tested the confidence of crypto market participants. After reaching a high of $97.700 in mid-January—and closing the month near $79.000—fueled by a sense of optimism, Bitcoin's price experienced a significant correction that brought it close to $60.000. Although the cryptocurrency is showing a slight recovery, currently hovering above $70.000, this is a level not seen since last year, reigniting the debate about whether the market's long-term upward trend has lost momentum.

However, despite the pessimistic tone that dominates social media and specialized forums, cryptocurrency analysts are observing different signals in the on-chain data. MVRV indicatorThe index, which compares Bitcoin's market value to its realized value, shows that selling has moderated after weeks of intense distribution. This is in addition to the increase in the activity of retail portfolios, which have resumed accumulation during the last few days, and a rebound in the stablecoin flows to exchanges, suggestion of new liquidity ready to enter the market.

Taken together, these indicators are interpreted as a technical scenario where the bearish momentum is beginning to weaken. For some observers, the current behavior not only reflects a natural cyclical adjustment process but also the construction of a base that could support the next significant Bitcoin price movement. 

Small investors defy market fear, according to Santiment

Investor behavior over the past few weeks has revealed a clear fracture in market psychology. According to a report According to Santiment's January survey, social sentiment toward Bitcoin collapsed dramatically. On January 29, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments fell to 0.86, a level historically associated with panic and emotional capitulation.

However, there is a notable discrepancy between what investors say and what they do. The firm's analysis of the distribution of supply for the leading cryptocurrency reveals the following:

• Retail Investors (Portfolios with <0,01 BTC)Despite the predominantly negative narrative in forums and social media, this group has been increasing their Bitcoin holdings consistently during the price drop.

• Large holders (Portfolios of 10 to 10.000 BTC)This segment has shown a slight reduction in their positionsopting for caution in the face of volatility.

According to the report, this divergence is atypical. Generally, extreme fear in public discourse coincides with massive sell-offs by small investors. However, the fact that this retail segment is absorbing the Bitcoin supply suggests an underlying conviction that current prices represent a discount zone, acting under the logic of "buying the dip" or buy the dip despite the external noise. 

Historically, market turning points tend to form precisely when sentiment is overwhelmingly negative, as the selling power of reactive players dries up, experts said. 

The MVRV points to an accumulation phase in the crypto market

Beyond investor sentiment, profitability metrics offer an objective view of the market's condition. The indicator MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) It is a metric that calculates the average gain or loss for holders of a currency by comparing the current price to the price at which the currency last traded. This calculation allows you to identify whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to its average cost basis.

Currently, the data shows figures that analysts interpret as buy signals:

• 30-day MVRV: It shows that average returns for short-term traders have fallen by 15,7%.

• 365-day MVRV: It records a 24,2% drop in returns for active investors over the past year.

According to the firm's analysts, these negative values ​​are critical for understanding Bitcoin's future price dynamics. When the MVRV is deeply negative, it means that the vast majority of recent participants are in unrealized losses. In this scenario, selling pressure tends to decrease dramatically because investors are reluctant to realize those losses. 

Statistically, these "peak pain" zones coincide with market bottoms and present a lower risk of further decline compared to periods of euphoria and high unrealized gains. Therefore, the current readings of -15,7% and -24,2% suggest that the market has purged excess speculation and is in an attractive accumulation zone.

Technical signals pointing to a Bitcoin recovery

The MVRV technical signal is further supported by a macroeconomic context and capital flows that favor digital assets over traditional safe havens. During the last week of January, while Bitcoin was correcting, the gold and silver markets experienced a massive sell-off, losing more than $10.000 billion in combined market capitalization in a 24-hour period. In comparison, although with a much smaller market capitalization, Bitcoin showed greater relative strength, reinforcing its narrative as a modern and liquid store of value.

According to Santiment, the influx of liquidity into the crypto ecosystem also indicates investors are ready for a rebound. The total supply of the top stablecoins on the 10 largest exchanges in the market increased during the last third of January. According to experts, stablecoins act as "dry gunpowder" or cash on the blockchain, so an increase in their reserves within exchanges is interpreted as a sign that investors are ready. They are positioning capital to execute buy orders as soon as price stabilization is confirmed.

In the corporate and institutional sphere, activity has not stopped either. For example, StrategyLed by Michael Saylor, it resumed an aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin in late January, taking advantage of low prices, despite the drop in its MSTR shares. 

Furthermore, the political environment is working in their favor, according to analysts. Despite the confrontation ongoing conflict between crypto leaders and banking leaders over stablecoin performance, the Kevin Warsh's nomination As chairman of the Federal Reserve, appointed by President Donald Trump, Warsh has introduced a positive long-term variable. He has publicly stated that Bitcoin functions as the "new gold," which could facilitate a more favorable regulatory integration.

In conclusion, although Bitcoin's price reflects a 12% weekly correction and a 21% decline over the past month, the combination of extreme bearish sentiment, a negative MVRV, and increased stablecoin reserves on exchanges creates a favorable technical scenario for market recovery. The data indicates that, while fear dominates the headlines, smart capital and retail investors are laying the groundwork for the next upward move.