Ethereum alert: This technical data anticipates an imminent correction in the price of ETH

Analysts detect signs of a correction for Ethereum in May. Discover why the market expects a technical cleanup before a new rally.

Ethereum is going through a period of apparent calm that, under the microscope of on-chain data, reveals significant structural tensions. Over the past few weeks, the market value of the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization has shown a resilience that doesn't quite align with the behavior of flows on exchanges or activity in derivatives markets. 

According to CryptoQuant's technical reports, there is a clear disconnect between the reduction in the available supply of ETH and the formation of a solid price floor. 

Historically, when the supply of assets on exchanges falls sharply, the market tends to seek a point of capitulation or «bottom"that validates the start of a new cycle. However, in the current 2026 scenario, the price of Ethereum remains at relatively high levels, generating a divergence that specialists interpret as a sign of downside risk in the short term for this month."

Ethereum faces a key disconnect between supply and price

The behavior of the indicator Exchange Supply Ratio This has raised alarms among veteran analysts due to its lack of synchronization with the current price action of ETH. 

This indicator, which measures the proportion of coins available for immediate sale, has reached lows that usually coincide with the end of a downtrend. However, the problem lies in the fact that, while supply decreases—a theoretically bullish factor—the price of ETH has not undergone the corrective adjustment that typically clears leveraged positions and establishes a solid base of buyers. 

The data suggests that Ethereum's market value is being artificially propped up, likely by the inertia of the derivatives market, which has prevented the cryptocurrency from finding a real, organic bottom in the current cycle. 

This technical gap between supply scarcity and price resilience is usually resolved by a corrective move that aligns both metrics. technical analysis CryptoQuant places a reference point near $2.289, a level that acts as a magnet in the absence of new buying catalysts. 

According to experts, if the market decides to close this «gapDuring this month of May, we are likely to see a drop towards the $2.200 area. However, if this decline occurs, it should not be interpreted as a failure of the network's fundamentals, but rather as a necessary purge to eliminate excess optimism not supported by actual volume. 

The history of the blockchain ecosystem demonstrates that rallies The most sustainable ones are those that arise from a clear capitulation, something that has not yet fully manifested itself in the current structure of the Ethereum daily chart.

Cautionary signs in the ETH futures market

The futures market fairly accurately reflects the current mood among participants. Currently, the data shows a clear decrease in risk appetite. Open interest in Ethereum, which measures the total value of active contracts, has fallen to $4.990 billion, below the 30-day average of approximately $5.310 billion.

This decline, in a context where the price of ETH is moving without a clear direction, suggests that many traders have opted to close positions or remain on the sidelines. Uncertainty in both the regulatory and macroeconomic environment has led to a more cautious approach this quarter.

Market behavior becomes even more evident when observing the Open Interest Z-Scorewhich is currently at -0,91. This value indicates that activity is below normal, which reduces available liquidity and leaves the cryptocurrency's price more exposed to sharp movements.

CryptoQuant's analysis suggests that Ethereum's upward momentum weakens without a sustained inflow of capital to support activity. In this scenario, May is shaping up to be a period of waiting, characterized by a prevailing cautious approach. Even so, major market players appear to be remaining vigilant, awaiting more favorable conditions before making further moves. positions with greater conviction.

As this stage evolves and indicators return to healthier levels, the market could find a more solid foundation to move forward, supported by more organic and consistent participation.