A large number of experts and analysis firms describe Bitcoin's latest drop as a crisis of confidence rather than a structural failure in the crypto market.
Analyst Michaël van de Poppe has indicated that the cryptocurrency market has reached its lowest point in the current cycle, marking the beginning of a gradual recovery. According to the expert, Bitcoin has replicated a similar technical pattern to that observed during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, after touching key support levels that historically precede prolonged upward trends.
Van de Poppe argues that, despite widespread pessimism among investors, technical indicators suggest that the price of the leading cryptocurrency has begun to gradually rise. His thesis is based on the identification of a market bottom that opens the door to an accumulation phase by institutional investors, who appear to be taking advantage of the retail sector's capitulation to position themselves for a trend reversal that seeks to stabilize above critical liquidity levels.
Take advantage of the end of the cycle. Enter Bit2MeVan de Poppe sees signs of a possible bullish turn in Bitcoin
Recent activity in digital asset markets has been marked by extreme volatility, which led Bitcoin to test historical support levels. Michaël van de Poppe, via his account on the social network X, manifested that current technical indicators coincide with the lows recorded in previous cycles.
According to the Bitcoin analyst, the current situation reflects past events where the cryptocurrency's price, after a severe drop, has always been able to establish a solid base from which to begin a new structural rise. The comparison with the 2020 market scenario is significant, as at that time the recovery occurred after a period of absolute panic, similar to the sentiment prevailing among investors today.
“I think we’ve seen the bottom and we’re slowly going up.”Van de Poppe noted in his post.
However, despite the recovery shown by the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, the expert emphasized that the majority of market participants remain trapped in a bearish mindset, awaiting further corrections which, from their technical perspective, might not materialize.
According to Van de Poppe, this contrast between cryptocurrency price action and investor perceptions typically recurs at the close of each market cycle, when fear is still strong but selling pressure begins to wane. He also suggested that Bitcoin's current gradual upward movement reflects an environment where sellers have ceased acting with urgency, allowing the market to stabilize around recent lows. This stability usually attracts institutional capital, which tends to enter the market when supply on exchanges begins to decrease and opportunities for immediate selling diminish.
The crypto community has received these projections with a mixture of caution and technical support. Some analysts agree that Bitcoin's internal structure shows signs of extreme oversold conditions. For example, Bitcoin's funding rate has fallen into negative territory, reaching -0,0041%. This figure indicates that a large portion of the market is shorting or aggressively hedging.
In contexts like this, a sudden trend reversal can trigger a rapid upward move, fueled by the massive closing of short positions. If Bitcoin's price manages to stabilize and hold strong above $70.000, experts expect a new wave of bullish momentum.
The crypto market is beginning to emerge amidst fear and opportunity
Amid the ongoing market readjustment, open interest in Bitcoin surged by 26%, a figure that experts consider crucial for building a robust local fund. This increase in trading volume suggests that capital is returning to the ecosystem, albeit in a more selective manner.
In parallel, the Fear and Greed IndexThe index, which fell to 4/100 on February 5, has shown a slight recovery, reaching 10/100. Although this value still reflects extreme fear, the upward trend supports Van de Poppe's view of the changing dynamics in investor sentiment.
On the other hand, there are support levels that the community rigorously monitors to validate the bullish thesis. For Bitcoin, the $66.100 level is presented as the main line of defense. As long as the asset remains above this price, the probability that the bottom identified by Van de Poppe will be definitive increases. In the case of Ethereum, the support is located at $2.004.
However, the current macroeconomic environment presents additional challenges due to a phase of global liquidity contractionUnlike previous V-shaped recoveries, analysts predict a slower and more sideways upward process, conditioned by international monetary policies.
Furthermore, a segment of the community remains skeptical about relying solely on chart indicators to confirm the end of the crypto market cycle. They argue that prices don't change simply because the charts improve, but rather when the forced selling caused by liquidations from large funds or miners ceases.
However, factors such as RSI (Relative Strength Index) Levels of 15 are interpreted by smart money as generational buying signals. These RSI levels are identical to those that marked the end of the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 crash. The capitulation of the retail sector, evidenced by low social sentiment, often precedes phases where institutions begin to absorb the circulating supply.
Buy Bitcoin today, in the rebound zoneThe calm after the market storm
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate its strength as an asset capable of withstanding market pressures. The ecosystem has evolved significantly with the arrival of exchange-traded funds and the influx of corporate capital, which now acts as a much more solid support than in previous stages.
Although the macroeconomic environment remains complex, and its evolution will undoubtedly impact the crypto market, Van de Poppe and other analysts agree that the current bearish cycle may be in its final phase and that the market's technical structure is beginning to show signs of exhaustion in selling pressure.
While it will take time for investors to regain confidence and stability, on-chain indicators and derivatives market data point to a scenario where recovery is beginning to gain traction. These metrics suggest that Bitcoin may be paving the way for a more sustained move toward stability and growth.
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