Analyst Michaël Van De Poppe argues that gold is overvalued relative to Bitcoin, citing technical indicators that suggest a shift in the financial narrative.
Renowned analyst Michaël Van De Poppe has ignited debate in financial markets by stating that gold, traditionally considered a safe haven, is currently overvalued compared to Bitcoin.
With the precision of a seasoned trend observer, Van De Poppe bases his view on a technical analysis that reveals a clear imbalance between the two assets. This paves the way for a shift in preferences toward the leading cryptocurrency.
Furthermore, this expert, with hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, highlights a key indicator. Bitcoin's relative strength index (RSI) against gold has fallen below 30This level, a threshold that historically signals attractive entry opportunities, has only been recorded three times before, during the downturns of 2015, 2018, and 2022. In all those cases, Bitcoin rebounded with dominant force.
Therefore, for the analyst, this historical pattern strengthens the idea that the current landscape is opening a promising chapter for the leading cryptocurrency in the market.
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To support his thesis that we are on the verge of a trend reversal, Van De Poppe doesn't rely on hunches, but on cold, hard metrics that have historically been infallible. The central tenet of his argument is the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the Bitcoin vs. Gold pair.
Currently, this indicator has fallen below the 30 level. In technical analysis, an RSI below 30 indicates that an asset is "oversold"That is, its price has fallen much faster and deeper than its real value would justify, often due to irrational panic by sellers.
Van De Poppe points out that this situation is a statistical anomaly that has only been repeated at three key moments in recent history:
- The bottom of the 2015 bear market.
- The final capitulation of 2018.
- The bottom of the cycle in 2022.
In each of these instances, the Bitcoin market felt a pessimism similar to that which has prevailed since the crash that began in October of this year. However, what followed those RSI dips below 30 was not a collapse, but an aggressive rebound where Bitcoin not only recovered but significantly outperformed gold.
La reading The expert's perspective on the current market context indicates that smart capital or Smart Money This imbalance is already being detected. While retail investors are seeking refuge in gold, which is trading at or near record highs, large players may be preparing to rotate those gains into Bitcoin, which is being offered at a massive relative discount.
For Van De Poppe, the correction of the last few months has served to clear leverage and leave the way clear for an organic and sustained rise.
Breaking the 4-year cycle narrative: Why is this time different?
Beyond the direct comparison with the precious metal, Van De Poppe takes advantage of the current situation to challenge one of the most deeply rooted dogmas in the crypto community: the four-year cycle linked to Bitcoin halving.
The price decline since mid-October has puzzled those who expected a textbook parabolic pattern based on previous cycles. However, for Van De Poppe, this is a sign of maturity, not weakness. The analyst argues that rigidly adhering to the timescales of past cycles limits our understanding of the current market.
Bitcoin's price has moved considerably away from its 20-week moving average, creating a divergence that, statistically, tends to close with an explosive upward move. This mean reversion is a basic financial principle: when one asset stretches too far downward—as Bitcoin is doing now—and another too far upward—like gold—the force of financial gravity tends to reverse their roles.
Based on this, the expert suggests that the narrative is changing from Bitcoin as a cyclical speculative asset to Bitcoin as an undervalued asset compared to the macroeconomyThe recent correction has served to test the resilience of key support levels. By holding these levels, Bitcoin is demonstrating that, despite media noise and market fears, underlying demand remains latent, awaiting the trigger for capital rotation away from inflated traditional assets.
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Van De Poppe sees an opportunity amidst the fear
Michaël Van De Poppe's thesis offers a beacon of optimism amidst a challenging quarter. His message is not that gold will cease to be valuable, but rather that, in terms of opportunity costBitcoin offers a much more attractive risk-reward asymmetry than precious metals at the moment.
History teaches us that the best buying opportunities occur when sentiment is negative and technical indicators scream "oversold." If Van De Poppe's prediction holds true, the correction since October won't be remembered as a crypto winter, but rather as the last major accumulation opportunity this year, before the market recognizes that gold was expensive and Bitcoin, by comparison, was a much more accessible option.
In short, Van De Poppe suggests that capital rotation seems imminent, and the market is ready to rebalance the scales in favor of digital gold.
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