When someone asks me, and they do very often, about the future value of Bitcoin, I always argue the same answer from two points. In the position of quantitative trader I explain that within market speculation the price is random. That is, no one is able to guess the future. Therefore the price could randomly go up or down at any time and with an unpredictable price movement. But on the side of long-term investment and relying on the fundamentals of the asset. In such a case, the answer is that Bitcoin will experience a progressive revaluation, maintaining an ascending positive derivative on the curve of its graph.
In these times, after the Halving, the incorporation of the economic and pandemic crisis of Covid-19 and other attributes, make the public have special interest in the future value of Bitcoin. And that is why, I will try to give my vision from my personal perspective and opinion.
Personally and by comparison in assets, I think that gold and Bitcoin are "Top growth candidates in the asset ecosystem" this year. I expect Bitcoin to be able to achieve a revaluation that will take it to its historical maximum this year. And all this in the midst of fundamental and technical factors “increasingly favorable in my opinion.” Among these factors, I focus on the greater adoption of Bitcoin as an independent investment tool. The growth in the volume of open positions in futures and the general direction of operations of institutional investors. That is, in the sense of pure investment "buy and hold".
“Something really has to go wrong for Bitcoin not to grow”
The basis for my opinion is that the market performance over the past two and a half years is largely reminiscent of the dynamics over the same period after the highs of December 2013, a strongly revealing fact.
After a 60% drop in 2014, Bitcoin returned to its 2016 peak by the end of 2013. Fast forward 4 years. This is the second year after dropping by almost 75% in 2018. In my opinion, Bitcoin will reach a record revaluation if the 2016 trend continues. As I insist, it is an opinion and the price of the asset is random.
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Since I am not committed to giving a future price, and this is what many people want when they read opinion articles like this, I will limit myself to giving the opinion of one of the most valid people in the crypto ecosystem, this person is Adam Back.
Back is a British cryptographer with a PhD in computer science who, in the 1990s, invented Hashcash, a verification system that uses Bitcoin. He is also the first person Satoshi contacted online in 2008, asking about Hashcash. He is also the CEO of Blockstream Corp. , which sells equipment to support operations related to Bitcoin. And also helps others, including Fidelity Investments and the investor Reid Hoffman, to mine Bitcoin. Back also mines Bitcoin, only Bitcoins, and according to his claim, he keeps what he mines.
As commented by Back at the beginning of June 2020, he believes that Bitcoin will appreciate to $300,000. This from the current price of around $10,000, and within the next five years. This without any additional adoption from institutional investors. Retail investors, who have carried the torch for the past 10 years since Bitcoin’s debut, will continue to show support while institutions remain cautious.
Maybe for now Bitcoin It does not require massive additional institutional adoption, as I have commented on other times, because the current crisis environment is causing more people to think about hedging the dollar and other safe haven assets without volatility. And retaining value when a lot of money is printed in the world, as we are seeing in the management of central banks.
I think there are sectors that have been compromised. With more people working from home amid the Covid-19 epidemic, real estate investments, tourism investments, airlines, automotive are riskier. Dollar bonds may be overvalued as is the stock market. And so some investors may be turning to Bitcoin. This is despite the fact that it could also see some headwinds as more people lose their jobs, in my opinion. This is all a run on the markets that we will see little by little.
On the other hand, and believing in institutional strength, we can have reassuring signs of demand. And it is that only Grayscale Investments has bought more Bitcoin in recent weeks that the amount of new coins that have been mined.
Among institutional investors, Bitcoin is still largely misunderstood. Or, they are signs of manipulation to lower the price of the asset for a covert repurchase of bitcoin from retail investors. An example of this is Goldman Sachs Group Inc., who said that the currency "It is not a suitable investment for our clients".
The Goldman report was interesting because it showed some misunderstandings about digital scarcity. And what is useful about Bitcoin and this could be an indicator that warns us that it is still early in terms of the adoption curve. To me, this indicates that there is still a lot of room for price appreciation and adoption in the market and we could even see very unfavorable values in the short term that could test the $4.500 area. But this is still mere personal speculation.
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