Disturbing Rumors spread in the halls and offices of Wall Street in the face of decisions coming from the White House, from whose Oval Office, Donald Trump, accompanied by Elon Musk, They make erratic statements that are written and a few hours later are rewritten with completely opposite patterns.
Economic warning signs they make themselves heard intensely between the analysts and wolves of New York's financial districtWhile the indicators confirm these fears, they are turning red, and the shadow of a recession threatens the United States, the financial giant and seemingly indestructible global power.
In the middle of this climate of uncertainty In traditional finance, the eyes of many Investors are also turning to Bitcoin (BTC), whose future could be shaken by the pressure of a crisis that seems to be looming relentlessly on the horizon.
El real estate, one of those who support a profitable economic climate In societies, it reveals signs of fragility: retail sales do not meet expectations and trade policies pushed by Donald Trump are fueling tensions. What implications will all this have for the future of Bitcoin and global markets? Despite the uncertainty, Analysts begin to speak.
The real estate market is sounding the alarm.
Let's start at the beginning and this is the real estate sector. The average annual number of housing starts in the United States fell to 1,37 million in January 2025. This marked its lowest point since 2020 amid the Covid-19 pandemicAnalysts at the financial newsletter The Kobeissi Letter provided these figures in red.
After this fall, the market reached its highest point in 2022 and since then the beginnings of new constructions have fallen by 458.000 unitsThis indicator represents a 25% decline in the sector. Experts emphasize that a sustained decline, as seen so far, has historically preceded past recessions.
This bulletin refers to this past: “During the real estate bubble of 2006, it was necessary 18 consecutive months of declines at the beginning of the construction of new homes for the recession to materialize”.
Similarly, before the 2001 recession, A similar decline lasted for 24 months. This is why the question persists in the minds of experts: Is the real estate market really anticipating an economic collapse by 2026?
Indexes and more indexes
Financial markets are showing other signs of unease that are added to the real estate sector. Since the United States Federal Reserve or FED began to reduce interest rates in September 2024. Similarly, the S&P 500 has fallen by 2%, which, according to Kobeissi Letter's analysis, is unusual behavior.
Normally, This index registers an increase of 1% within six months of these rate cuts. However, in recessionary contexts, The figures are more discouraging: There may be declines of 6% in six months, 10% in a year, and an average maximum loss of 15% over an eight-month period. On the other hand, if a recession is avoided, the S&P 500 index It tends to rise by 10% in the following six months and by 15% within a year after the rates are set.
Kobeissi experts emphasize, on the other hand, the difficulty of the current outlook for the FED. Its next interest rate decision was expected on March 19. However, The body again decided not to make changes on interest rates. They argued that, despite this lack of action, there are still ways to optimize savings returns or reduce the costs associated with citizens' debt.
In context is that the Trump administration's inconsistent tariff policies, along with his haughty, defiant attitude and apparent intention to antagonize the traditional United States, have led many analysts to reduce their growth projections economic for the country.
In line with these perspectives, The Fed did not remain impassive and also adjusted its expectations, indicating in its statement that it anticipates slower growth and higher inflation than previously expected. These were the words of Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, who gave a press conference at the conclusion of the two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in Washington, DC, on January 29.
During his speech, Powell highlighted the “high uncertainty” surrounding the potential impact of the White House's decisions on the economy, not only in the United States but globally. He also indicated that the Fed continues to consider the possibility of making two quarter-point interest rate cuts this year.
Trump and the so-called tariff war
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump just three months after taking office have intensified tensions. on trade between the United States and its trading partners. The president imposed a 25% tariff on products from Mexico and Canada and a 20% tariff on imports from China. He also outlined plans to extend these measures to goods from the European Union.
In what It has been called the “tariff war,” after the announcement of measures towards Mexico and Canada which was due to come into effect in March, the White House decided to postpone the decision until April, thus causing uncertainty to affect the markets from earlier on.
These decisions and counter-decisions raise concerns about possible increases in inflation, shortages of products traded by the United States, Mexico, and Canada, and a possible recession. This will, of course, impact financial markets, including crypto assets.
Contextualizing the situation and seeing that Bitcoin and its peers Ethereum, Litecoin, Cardano, Solana and a long etcetera are considered higher risk assets, have already suffered significant losses, falling by 16% in the last month according to data from TradingView.
On the other hand, retail cryptocurrency sales In the United States, the economy is showing signs of an economic slowdown. Bloomberg, a digital media outlet specializing in economics and finance, reported that in February, these grew less than expected, while revised data for January reflect the biggest drop experienced by the crypto market since July 2021.
