Is crypto regulation stalling in the US? Experts say the CLARITY Act is on the verge of passing the Senate.

Ron Hammond, from Wintermute, It is estimated that the CLARITY Act faces an uncertain future in the Senate. The debate over stablecoin performance and pressure from banks are keeping the bill in limbo.

The head of policy at Wintermute, a liquidity analysis and provisioning firm, has poured cold water on regulatory expectations in the United States. According to their most recent projections, the draft of CLARITY Act (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) It barely has a 30% chance to receive Senate approval before the end of 2026. His estimate comes at a critical time when the legislative calendar is tightening and political priorities appear to be shifting to other fronts.

The low expectations surrounding the passage of this law reflect the power struggle between traditional banking and the crypto ecosystem, a rivalry that intensifies as regulations seek to balance innovation and control. The most sensitive point in the CLARITY Act debate remains the possibility that platforms operating with stablecoins will offer returns or interest to their users, a mechanism that banks interpret as direct competition to conventional deposits.

The ongoing debate has highlighted the differences between those who advocate for more flexible regulation to stimulate innovation and those who demand clear limits to protect the financial system. In this context, the CLARITY Act has become a barometer of the US political stance on the future of digital assets and their integration into traditional markets.

The CLARITY Act and the banking sector's efforts to halt crypto advancements in the Senate

The CLARITY Act seeks to consolidate a stable regulatory framework in the United States for digital assets that are not classified as securities, acting as an extension of the GENIUS Act already approved in 2025. Its progress, however, is stalled in the Senate due to pressure from banking groups that fear a direct impact on the traditional financial system.

Financial institutions continue to warn that allowing stablecoins to generate interest could incentivize a massive transfer of funds from traditional savings accounts to digital platforms. This migration, they argue, could reduce the liquidity available for loans and jeopardize credit stability.

Although industry experts believe the risk could be almost nil —as supported by the recent report published by the Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) The concern—from the White House—has been enough to stall discussions in the Senate Banking Committee. The lack of progress continues to block a key debate for the development of the crypto market in the United States.

According to analyses by figures such as Alex Thorn, director of research at Galaxy Digital, Congress must resolve the impasse before the end of April. If the bill is not debated on the floor during May, the November 2026 election will divert legislative attention and postpone any regulatory definition regarding digital assets.

The White House denies the risks of stablecoins, but the debate continues

Despite the banking sector's rejection of stablecoin performance, the debate about their role in the US economy is gaining momentum both within and outside the financial sector. 

The recent report from the Council of Economic Advisers suggests that fears about a potential destabilization of the banking system are, in essence, exaggerated. This report concludes that prohibiting interest payments on these stable digital assets would barely affect lending activity, with an estimated increase of only a 0,02% in the total number of loans under restrictive conditions. In contrast, this limitation would directly impact the consumer by eliminating competitive savings options that could improve access to returns in an environment of high demand for decentralized alternatives.

The Web3 community is watching the legislative movement with caution, aware that the passage of the CLARITY Act would define the path of digital innovation in the coming years. The market warns that delaying this decision could encourage capital to migrate to jurisdictions with more predictable frameworks, while weakening the United States' position in the global competition for the financial infrastructure of the future.

With the debate still unfolding in the halls of Congress, the discussion about incentives and returns on stablecoins reflects a broader struggle over how to balance financial stability with innovation. Each week without legislative progress increases uncertainty and erodes market confidence, while the expectation of regulatory clarity remains on hold.

Regarding this break, Eleanor Terrett, presenter of Crypto in AmericaHe commented —citing people familiar with the matter— that an agreement between the banking and crypto sector is possible this week following the review of the latest draft law. “None of them wanted to comment on details, but they said they hoped that this time a viable solution had been reached.”, concluded Terrett.