Uncertainty returns to the market: Bitcoin trades lower as tensions between the US and Iran escalate

Bitcoin's price fell 2,5% in the last few hours following the escalation of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and the expiration of options in the derivatives market.

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, is experiencing a correction today, dropping its price below the psychological threshold of $70.000, a level it had managed to defend for most of the week. This downward movement comes amid heightened global sensitivity, marked by mixed signals in the conflict between the United States and Iran.

Although President Donald Trump recently announced a new temporary truce in the conflict, citing progress in diplomatic talks, international reports suggest that Iran has rejected mediation efforts. This disagreement has brought volatility back to financial markets, interrupting the period of relative calm this week and affecting both digital assets and traditional stock market indices.

Selling pressure and institutional caution

According to data from the CoinGecko platform, Bitcoin is trading around $67.727, slightly underperforming the global cryptocurrency market average, which has fallen 2,25% in the last 24 hours. Trading volume remains high, fueled by a combination of technical factors and capital outflows.

In addition to political tensions, one of the factors adding selling pressure to the market is the activity of large miners. Recent reports indicate that MARA Holdings has mobilized a significant amount of reserves, approximately 15.133 BTC, this month, increasing the available supply at a time of cautious demand.

This flow of sales is compounded by the behavior of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. On March 26, net outflows were recorded amounting to 171 millionThis figure reflects the more defensive stance adopted by institutional investors in the face of the current complex macroeconomic scenario.

Bitcoin on alert for massive liquidations

Bitcoin's price is fluctuating amid a day of high tension, dictated in part by its correlation with traditional markets. On the one hand, the recent surge in US Treasury yields, which are climbing toward 4,4%, has increased the cost of money, prompting investors to abandon riskier assets in search of liquidity.

In the derivatives market, trading has also been volatile. Over the past 24 hours, long Bitcoin positions worth more than $185 million have been forcibly closed, while short positions have been liquidated at around $13 million. 

According to market experts and analysts, the data above reveals that a significant number of traders were betting that the price of Bitcoin would continue to rise, but the pullback in prices ultimately forced them to sell those contracts. Simply put, more traders were caught up in optimism than caution, which exacerbated the decline and amplified the pressure on the market.

Additionally, the market has reacted to a massive expiration of options contracts. Now, analysts' attention is focused on the $67.500 level. If Bitcoin manages to close the day above this trading low, the probability of a technical rebound toward $70.000 increases. However, experts emphasize that a confirmed break below this support level could open the door to an area of ​​higher demand near $65.000.

The market highlights Bitcoin's strength despite volatility

Despite increased volatility, leading analytics firms like Glassnode and Bernstein maintain a constructive view on the long-term market structure. According to their profitability metrics and on-chain flows, Bitcoin is not in a capitulation cycle, but rather in a healthy consolidation phase.

In her report In their weekly report on the cryptocurrency market, Glassnode analysts highlight that, after reaching overbought levels earlier this month, the market is seeking a new equilibrium. The supply held by long-term investors, known as HODLers, remains stable, acting as an anchor against a further decline.

Meanwhile, Bernstein reports suggest that Bitcoin's resilience to geopolitical tensions and rising interest rates is remarkable. Compared to previous cycles, the current institutional infrastructure allows the cryptocurrency to absorb selling pressure more efficiently. 

The consensus among these firms is that, once the geopolitical noise dissipates and oversold indicators—such as the RSI—normalize, the narrative of Bitcoin's digital scarcity could regain prominence.