Find out why experts are warning of a possible sharp drop in Bitcoin and how to prepare for these scenarios.
The lights of the crypto market, so intense and bright in recent times, could be about to dim. Bitcoin, the digital giant that has defied predictions and withstood global economic shocks, now finds itself in the eye of a hurricane of uncertainty.
And the signals emerging from the market suggest we could be approaching one of the biggest drops of the year, with an impact that would go beyond the price and could reshape the crypto landscape in the coming months. Therefore, understanding the factors behind this potential storm is essential to anticipating the movement of this digital currency that redefines how we understand money.
BUY BITCOIN ON BIT2MEScenario one: Volatility linked to geopolitical tensions and its impact on Bitcoin
Bitcoin has shown increasing sensitivity to global geopolitical events, as evidenced recently when its price plummeted following the announcement of a military strike in the Middle East due to the Israel-Iran conflict. These types of tensions not only generate uncertainty in traditional markets but also undermine confidence in assets considered risky, including cryptocurrencies. The drop from approximately $108.000 to $102.800 reflected the immediate impact of this news. In fact, Bitcoin's current price is hovering around $104.706 USD.
What makes Bitcoin more sensitive right now is not only the inherently volatile nature of cryptocurrencies, but also the supply and demand environment. Significant liquidity has accumulated between all-time highs and symbolic price thresholds, specifically between $105.000 and $120.000, making it difficult for bulls to take definitive control. This means investors are in a state of wait-and-see mode, cautiously assessing whether tensions will be resolved through diplomatic means or whether the conflicts will deepen, thus influencing their movements.
Furthermore, the interaction between geopolitics and cryptocurrencies becomes both a risk and an opportunity. For example, in scenarios where traditional global markets are falling, gold often rises as a safe haven, while Bitcoin tries to position itself in that same digital currency. However, the test is not always simple. The crypto market's immediate response to such delicate events can quickly turn into a sell-off, fueling a downward spiral. Therefore, observing indicators such as support and resistance levels and intraday volatility will be crucial to detect early signs of steep declines.
Scenario two: the influence of macroeconomic factors and market maturity
Another crucial factor in understanding this potential decline lies in the global macroeconomic context and the current state of maturity of the Bitcoin market. Although institutional adoption is on the rise and has been reflected in the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which facilitate the participation of traditional investors, new patterns in the asset's volatility are also being observed. Compared to previous cycles, volatility during 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 has been relatively lower, indicating that Bitcoin is behaving more like a traditional asset, but not without risk.
Monetary policy, especially that of the US Federal Reserve, has played a leading role. Announcements regarding gradual interest rate cuts tend to benefit risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, but can also generate short-term uncertainty. At the same time, trade tensions, fluctuating inflation, and the depreciation of the dollar directly affect the perception of Bitcoin as a potential safe haven or speculative asset.
Furthermore, Bitcoin's inherent scarcity often exerts upward pressure on the price by slowing the issuance of new bitcoins. However, this scarcity can also clash with market reality if demand declines or if sell-offs occur due to external or internal ecosystem events.
Hence, attention should be paid to financial indicators such as MVRV Z-Score, which evaluates market valuation versus realized value, and trading volume, which can anticipate trend changes. Investing time in studying these signals allows you to build more informed strategies and prepare for sudden movements that could significantly affect the capital of market participants.
Signs to prepare for a possible steep fall
Given the possibility of a significant drop, it is essential for both novice and experienced investors to recognize the signs that could lead to it. An early indication is liquidity congestion in key price zones, where supply exceeds obvious demand, creating resistance zones that are difficult to overcome. In the case of Bitcoin, this has been especially evident between all-time highs and $120,000, generating a buying battle that still has no clear winner.
Increased volatility around dates with geopolitical events or macroeconomic announcements should also raise red flags. When the market reacts with rapid declines to international news, it signals heightened sensitivity that can lead to prolonged corrections. Furthermore, a decline in buying volume coupled with increased selling pressure often heralds a potential reversal of the upward trend.
Finally, observing technical indicators such as the breakout of relevant support levels, such as $105.000 in the current case, can confirm that the market is entering a correction phase. Failure to close the weekly session above these critical zones intensifies uncertainty and could trigger panic among market participants.
The value of prudence and information
Bitcoin's path remains exciting and challenging. The possibility of a significant decline should not be seen solely as a threat, but as an opportunity to better understand the dynamics of a constantly evolving market. Preparing involves not only following the news and analysis, but also learning to interpret the signals emerging from the technical and fundamental framework. Patience, meticulous analysis, and diversification can be powerful allies in navigating uncertain waters.
Thus, while the prospects for a decline are alarming, they do not underestimate Bitcoin's potential to recover and continue its path of innovation and adoption. The crypto ecosystem is at a turning point, and the key will be how market participants manage this volatility and future trends.
Investing in cryptoassets is not fully regulated, may not be suitable for retail investors due to high volatility and there is a risk of losing all invested amounts.
