Ethereum rebounds from lows after recording lowest futures volume since 2024

Ethereum is recovering, but the market remains divided between technical gains and structural risks.

Ethereum's price has shown signs of recovery after hitting local lows of $3.500 on October 11. At the time of writing, ETH is trading near $3.900, amid an environment marked by low futures activity and volatility that reflects deeper tensions in its ecosystem. 

According to data In the market, this rebound comes after recording the lowest volume of futures since 2024, suggesting a pause in leveraged speculation and a possible transition to a more stable consolidation phase.

The technical recovery has been accompanied by a rally that briefly brought the price to $4.100, although new challenges have begun to impact its valuation. Among them, the geopolitical tensions that severely affected the market on October 10, when more than $19.000 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated. But beyond the external noise, Ethereum faces an internal dilemma: moving toward greater scalability without compromising its decentralization.

Fusaka and the promise of a faster and more efficient Ethereum network

The Fusaka update, scheduled to be deployed on the mainnet next month, December 3, is shaping up to be one of the most significant technical milestones of the year for Ethereum. This implementation introduces PeerDAS, a technology that expands the capacity of data blobs per block from 6 to 14, which will allow more than 12.000 transactions per second (TPS) in Layer 2 solutions. This improvement follows the successful tests on the Holešky and Sepolia networks during October, and aligns with Ethereum’s “Lean” roadmap, which projects reaching 10.000 TPS on Layer 1 by 2026.

The direct involvement of Fusaka This is a significant reduction in gas fees and an improvement in the efficiency of decentralized applications. This could attract new dApp deployments and revitalize the ecosystem, especially if the pattern seen after the Dencun upgrade in March 2024, which triggered a 58% rally in the price of ETH in just 90 days, is repeated.

However, not everything is guaranteed. Some delays in client implementation, such as the issues observed with the Prysm validator on Devnet-5, could limit Fusaka's immediate impact. The Ethereum Foundation has acknowledged these technical challenges, although it remains committed to the protocol's progressive evolution.

In parallel, the market is closely watching how this doubling of capacity could offset the growth in the circulating supply of ETH, driven by staking unlocks, which have increased by 19% in recent weeks. The key question is whether the infrastructure improvements will be sufficient to absorb this pressure without negatively impacting the cryptocurrency's price.

Institutional interest and the risks of the new staking model

As Ethereum advances along its technical roadmap, institutional interest continues to show mixed signals. BlackRock introduced a modified version of its ETHA ETF, which includes the option for staking through trusted providers. Meanwhile, BitMine expanded its treasury with an additional $1.500 billion in ETH, reflecting an increasingly aggressive accumulation strategy. If the staking ETF is approved, it is estimated that up to 30% of Ethereum's ETH could be locked up, up from the current 26%.

This scenario poses a paradox: the more ETH is locked in institutional staking, the lower the available liquid supply, which could drive up the price. But at the same time, the concentration of power in the hands of large staking providers raises concerns about network decentralization.

The proposal EIP-7796, which seeks to reduce ETH issuance, adds an additional layer of complexity. Simulations Game theory-based estimates suggest that individual stakers could see their profitability reduced by 27%, potentially leading to a mass migration to liquid staking tokens (LST). If 60% of validators make this transition, the current APY of 12,67% could drop to 9,2%, triggering withdrawals of up to $1.200 billion, with an estimated exit queue of 841.000 ETH.

While this change could improve network security by concentrating validation on professional operators, it also increases the risk of centralization. The market share of large providers could drop from 54% to 63%, calling into question one of Ethereum's founding principles.

Ethereum Q4 Outlook: Between Technical Momentum and Structural Pressure

Ethereum's current price of around $3.870 reflects a constant tension between scalability expectations and the risks arising from the staking economic model. If Fusaka is implemented smoothly and the staking ETF is given the green light, the market could see a push toward the $4.200 resistance in Q4. But if validators begin to withdraw en masse or the SEC delays key decisions, the $3.400 support could be tested.

Ethereum's evolution in the coming months will depend on these factors. The doubling of blob capacity in December will be a key indicator in assessing whether the network can absorb the growth in supply without losing efficiency or decentralization. In this context, monitoring validator behavior, institutional response, and technical implementation will be critical to understanding where the second-largest asset in the crypto market is headed.

Certificate

Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis Course

Medium level

In this training we have Iván González, a professional expert in investments and cryptocurrencies, to teach you how the market works and how prices affect the behavior of investors.

FREE 7 lessons

Start now