Javier Pastor, Head of OTC at Bit2Me, analyzes the pre-election market in the United States. In addition, in a recent report, Bernstein analysts warned of a period of intense volatility in the price of Bitcoin following the presidential elections in the United States.
For Pastor, “the Biden-Harris administration’s latest term has largely been a missed opportunity to cement the United States as a leader in the world of Bitcoin and cryptoassets. Rather than adopting policies that drive development and innovation in this sector, the administration has allowed restrictions to be imposed that have driven businesses and talent away from the country. Far from creating a clear and favorable regulatory environment, Biden and Harris’ approach has left innovators in a limbo of uncertainty and restrictions.”
He adds that “the presence of figures such as Gary Gensler, chairman of the SEC, has been a key element in the restrictive regulation of the sector. Gensler has adopted a stance that many consider excessively rigid and repressive, using regulation to slow down the industry and create obstacles that discourage innovation. Instead of encouraging the growth of cryptoassets, the SEC’s approach under his command has been to limit the development of the sector, with constant lawsuits and legal conflicts that hinder the United States’ progress in the industry.”
Voices of change in favor of cryptoassets
In contrast, some leaders in the Senate and politics, such as Cynthia Lummis and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., have noted that the United States should encourage, not hinder, innovation in Bitcoin and cryptoassets. Cynthia Lummis has strongly argued for the importance of a favorable regulatory framework that allows the United States to lead the adoption of these assets. Lummis has argued that a flexible, innovation-promoting approach can strengthen the American financial system rather than put it at risk.
According to Pastor, “Kennedy, for his part, has also advocated for a vision in which the growth of cryptoassets in the US is key to sustaining the country’s financial and technological independence, as opposed to regulation that solely privileges state control over innovation. Both figures represent a clear and hopeful alternative to the limiting approach adopted by Biden and Harris, which has focused on imposing restrictions rather than supporting the advancement of the industry.”
Bernstein analysts' report
Although the firm's analysts have taken an objective approach in assessing the future of Bitcoin's price in the context of the US presidential election, they recently said that The election results will influence the price of BTC up or down in the short term.
Thus, although they estimate that the market-leading cryptocurrency could reach a target price of $200.000 by the end of next year, regardless of who becomes the country's new president, they also stated that A victory by Donald Trump could have an immediate positive impact on the BTC price which would push the cryptocurrency to surpass its current all-time high of $73.750. In this context, Bernstein analysts They believe it is possible that Bitcoin will conquer $80.000 or $90.000 before the inauguration ceremony of the new president.
Otherwise, and that is Kamala Harris becomes the next president of the United States, the firm's analysts predict that the price of Bitcoin could react downwards and fall back to $50.000 per unit during the period in which the official results are known and before the inauguration on January 20.
This analysis, on a period of intense volatility in the Bitcoin price following the elections, is based on the market's perception of the candidates and their stances towards cryptocurrency regulation.
Over the past 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin has been showing signs of volatility that analysts anticipate due to the presidential election, trading down between $69.300 and $67.600, according to the data consulted on CoinMarketCap. Likewise, the trading volume of Bitcoin has also increased significantly in the last few hours, exceeding $38.800 billion dollars, with a daily increase of approximately 30%.
Will Trump or Harris boost the crypto market?
Bernstein has set a price target of $200.000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2025, regardless of the election result. However, the firm anticipates that a victory for Trump, who is considered a pro-crypto candidate, could lead to a surge in the price of Bitcoin ahead of the inauguration.
Analysts have also highlighted that the US cryptocurrency regulatory landscape will play a crucial role in the price evolution of Bitcoin in the coming months. Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies is generally more favorable, which could result in a friendlier regulatory environment that opens the doors to new investments and sustained growth of the cryptoasset market and its participants. In contrast, Harris has maintained a more cautious stance, which could imply a continuation of the restrictive policies that have characterized the Democratic administration in recent years.
But, in addition to the presidential elections taking place today, November 5, in the United States, Bernstein analysts have also pointed out a number of factors that are directly influencing the price of Bitcoin. For example, Growing concerns about US fiscal debt, coupled with monetary expansion, have led to an increase in demand for hard assets like Bitcoin. Furthermore, the success of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the country has provided an additional boost to the crypto market, highlighting that institutional interest in the cryptocurrency continues to rise.
BUY BITCOINETFs on Bitcoin Price Growth
As the presidential election unfolds, Bernstein analysts have noted that The success of Bitcoin spot ETFs is a key driver for the cryptocurrency's price growthThese financial investment products have gained significant attention, allowing more investors to access Bitcoin through traditional channels, which has contributed to its legitimization in financial markets.
Thus, with the political uncertainty surrounding the United States, many investors see Bitcoin as a safe haven, which has been contributing to an increase in its price this year.
On the other hand, they have pointed out that Bitcoin mining also remains an important topic. As more companies get involved in BTC mining, especially those that use renewable energy sources, a more sustainable image of the cryptocurrency is being promoted. In the context of the elections, analysts predict that A more favorable regulatory policy could further promote sustainability and technological innovation in this sector., which would favor an increase in investor interest in BTC.
Beyond the presidential elections
The relationship between the US presidential election and the price of Bitcoin is undeniable. Analysts said that the election results are not yet priced into the cryptocurrency price and the crypto market. Moreover, history has shown that after every election, the price of Bitcoin has tended to increase in value, and if this trend continues, we could see the cryptocurrency reach new all-time highs in the coming year.
BUY BITCOINOn the other hand, we must not forget that we are in a post-halving period, an event that has historically also been shown to have a significant impact on the price of the cryptocurrency. Market analysts have pointed out that this increase can be attributed to the reduction in the supply of Bitcoin, which increases its scarcity and, therefore, its perceived value.
So, while it is difficult to predict exactly how the Bitcoin price will respond in the future, historical patterns suggest that the election and halving could be a significant catalyst. Currently, the market's attention is focused on the election results and expectations of clearer cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. Therefore, the next few weeks will be crucial to understanding the path that the Bitcoin price and the crypto market will follow in the coming months.
IMPORTANT: The content of this article is for informational purposes only and, in no case, what is written here should be taken as investment advice or recommendations. Bit2Me News reminds you that before making any investment you should educate yourself and know where you invest your money, as well as the pros and cons of the system. We separate ourselves from the actions and consequences that ignorance may entail. If you decide to invest in this or another asset class, you are solely responsible for the consequences that your decisions and actions may have.
