Hormuz effect: Is tension in the strait making Bitcoin production more expensive?

A recent report by VanEck analyzes how tension in the Strait of Hormuz is causing a global energy shock, which could impact the profitability of Bitcoin mining.

VanEck analysts have highlighted the profound global ramifications that the disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is having on international markets. 

Historically, the Strait of Hormuz has been the world's most significant chokepoint for energy trade. However, in the technological context of 2026, the consequences of its partial closure or sustained strain extend beyond gas stations and heavy industry; they also reach the very heart of digital asset infrastructure. 

The disruption of traffic on this maritime route has generated what analysts call the "Cousin of Hormuz", an economic phenomenon that is raising natural gas prices and, by extension, the electricity rates that support the largest data processing networks on the planet.

The energy shock that threatens the profitability of Bitcoin mining

Bitcoin mining is essentially a process of converting energy into security for the blockchain network. For this process to be profitable, miners seek jurisdictions with energy surpluses and competitive prices. 

Texas, in the United States, for example, has consolidated its position in recent years as the quintessential global hub due to its liberalized electricity market and abundant natural gas. However, this competitive advantage is becoming a point of vulnerability amid the current crisis.

According to report According to VanEck, the price of natural gas is the main determinant of electricity prices in markets such as that of Texas (ERCOT)Since a significant part of the electricity generation for mining depends on combined cycle plants fueled by gas, the increase in the price of this hydrocarbon due to global scarcity has driven up the cost per kilowatt-hour (kWh).

When the flow of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil is threatened in the Strait of Hormuz, the global market reacts with a preemptive price increase. For a mining data center, an increase of just a few cents in the cost of kWh can mean the difference between operating at a profit and incurring operating losses. 

This scenario, combined with other factors that experts have called the formation of a “perfect storm” — such as the rise of Artificial Intelligence — is forcing mining companies to re-evaluate their power purchase agreements (PPAs) and seek financial hedging mechanisms to mitigate the volatility of energy prices.

Bitcoin under pressure: Hashrate moves in a wide sideways range

The increase in production costs has a direct technical consequence for the Bitcoin network: hashrate fluctuation. 

The hashrate represents the total computing power securing the blockchain network at any given time. When the cost of electricity rises above the value of the rewards earned from mining new blocks, miners with less efficient equipment are forced to disconnect.

According to Coinwarz data, Bitcoin's hashrate has been moving within a wide sideways range for the past month, without a sustained upward or downward trend. However, the chart does show short periods where significant computing power has entered or left the network, possibly related to adjustments in energy costs.

The Checkonchain platform reported Earlier this week, it was reported that the cost of mining 1 BTC has risen to $88.000. Given that the cryptocurrency's price is currently around $71.000 on the open market, this means that active miners have been operating at an average loss of $17.000 for every BTC mined from the blockchain. Analysts at the firm also noted that profit margins for Bitcoin mining have been squeezed by increased energy costs linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

Although there's no talk yet of a massive technical collapse triggered by rising energy costs, experts emphasize that the industry is in the midst of an efficiency adjustment. The Bitcoin protocol is designed to adjust automatically through "mining difficulty," but the transition process may lead to periods of reduced activity in certain regions. 

VanEck's report highlights that the "Hormuz Effect" acts as a natural selection filter for the industry. Only those operations with state-of-the-art hardware—capable of processing more calculations with less energy—or those with access to alternative energy sources can maintain their competitiveness in an energy-intensive environment.

Blockchain technology demonstrates its technical resilience here, but the economic viability of publicly traded mining companies is under scrutiny. The correlation between traditional energy markets and digital asset infrastructure is closer than ever, positioning energy as a critical input for the 21st-century digital economy.

Energy decentralization: The future of digital mining

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is accelerating a trend already emerging in the sector: the need for true energy independence for Bitcoin mining. The report suggests that these types of global shocks will drive companies to move even further away from power grids dependent on imported fossil fuels or subject to the volatility of international markets.

In the months leading up to the "Ormuz Premium," there was already a growing interest in integrating Bitcoin mining with sources of renewable energy in situ, such as solar and wind power, or the utilization of waste gas from oil extraction that would otherwise be burned. By capturing energy that is not dependent on global supply chains, miners can partially insulate themselves from tensions in critical geographic locations, as is currently happening in Hormuz.

Furthermore, several experts agree that the current cost pressures are accelerating innovation in ASIC chip design and liquid cooling systems, which maximize miners' energy efficiency. In the long term, this period of energy stress could result in a more robust, distributed, and technologically advanced Bitcoin network, although the path to that transition involves facing new operational challenges. 

For the crypto community, while the energy shock is an immediate obstacle, it is also the catalyst for the next phase of evolution of the global blockchain infrastructure.