The debut of a Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States is the most talked about prediction in the entire crypto space, as experts expect the SEC to authorize the launch of this investment vehicle within the next 10 days.
The approval and launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF, listed on the US market, is essential for Open the doors of the crypto ecosystem to a wide range of investors, who are looking to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies in a regulated manner.
The Bitcoin ETF would allow US investors to securely and transparently access cryptocurrency, through an investment vehicle they are familiar with and are used to. Additionally, through the Bitcoin ETF, investors would not have to manage or hold bitcoins, making entry and exposure to the crypto space even easier, especially for traditional investors who are not familiar with blockchain technology.
According to experts, who have been following the evolution of this topic in the industry in recent months, such as Eric Balchunas, ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, the SEC could approve a Bitcoin spot ETF in the next two weeksThis could attract a lot of interest from investors and potentially boost the price of Bitcoin.
The approval of a spot ETF by the US SEC, a move that would provide Bitcoin with greater legitimacy as a global investment asset, is among the predictions launched by VanEck for this year.
In his report entitled “VanEck's 15 Crypto Predictions for 2024In a report published in December, the investment management firm noted that a Bitcoin-based listed investment vehicle may be approved in the United States in the first quarter.
Up to $40.000 billion could flow into Bitcoin ETF
According to VanEck predictions, the Bitcoin spot ETF is possible record revenues of approximately $1.000 billion in its first few days of debut, and up to $2.400 billion in its first three months.
The American investment management firm compared the performance of the GLD gold exchange-traded fund from State Street Global Advisors, which was launched in 2004, with the performance that the Bitcoin spot ETF could have, once it is approved by the SEC. According to VanEck, a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund could attract traditional investors to the cryptocurrency market, especially considering that we are approaching a possible recession. “With debt levels being more of a concern at the sovereign level than at the corporate or household level, we expect more than $2,4 billion to flow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs,” VanEck noted.
In its predictions, VanEck also noted that Bitcoin has been “taking significant market share from gold” among investors who rely on the precious metal as a store of value asset, so it is possible that 2024 will be “a peak year of understanding” of Bitcoin's characteristics by traditional investors, leading the spot ETF to record inflows of up to $40.400 billion in the first two years of tradinghe said.
“Extending our logic further, a more mature state of the Bitcoin ETF could approximate around 1,7%, which is the approximate amount of the total gold supply held in gold ETFs, of the total BTC spot market.”, VanEck said.
Bitcoin Halving will boost BTC price
In addition to the Bitcoin spot ETF, the fourth halving that will occur on the blockchain network this year has also generated a number of predictions. According to VanEck, the fourth Bitcoin halving will push the price of the cryptocurrency above $48.000 by BTC.
VanEck noted that the arrival of the new halving could trigger selling pressure on unprofitable BTC miners, who will eventually disconnect their equipment from the blockchain network. However, after this brief period, which could last several days or several weeks after the arrival of the halving, the price of the cryptocurrency will begin to rise, the investment firm said.
A new ATH in mid-2024
In the second half of this year, Bitcoin could set a new All-Time High (ATH). VanEck estimates that, this year, SEC changes its hostile regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies, which would help the price of Bitcoin to recover, and even surpass, its previous all-time high price, seen in November 2021.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $45.000, up 5,7% in the past 24 hours and 171% in the past year.
Source: CoinMarketCap
By December 2024, exactly three years after its last all-time high, Bitcoin could be trading above $3, VanEck said. In addition to this, the firm predicts that if Bitcoin were to reach this value by the end of the year, Satoshi Nakamoto, the enigmatic creator of Bitcoin, “will be Named “Man of the Year” by Time Magazine".
“Recall that Bitcoin’s November 2020 breakout also occurred exactly three years after its November 2017 high.”, VanEck said.
Argentina will be the next country to adopt crypto mining
This year, Argentina will join El Salvador, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bhutan as “the fifth country to sponsor Bitcoin mining at the state level”, VanEck said.
The investment firm believes that Argentina's state-owned energy giant, YPF, which stands for Fiscal Oilfields, S.A., will be interested in mining bitcoins and other digital assets, using alternative energy sources such as methane and natural gas.
Ethereum will not surpass Bitcoin
While JPMorgan is betting on Ethereum's evolution as a key factor in pushing the cryptocurrency above Bitcoin, VanEck estimates that ETH will not surpass BTC in 2024.
The investment management firm believes that Ethereum has great potential and, this year, will outperform all mega-cap tech stocksHowever, it will not overtake Bitcoin, as JPMorgan estimates. VanEck believes that Bitcoin will remain the most capitalized cryptocurrency and the most robust blockchain network in the world this year and that other scalable networks, such as Solana, will position themselves against Ethereum.
Layer 2 will capture the largest volume of TVL
Proto-danksharding will make Ethereum a more scalable and accessible network. However, despite the arrival of this update, included in the EIP-4844, Layer 2 chains will continue to be more attractive to many users.
Regarding the second layer of the Ethereum blockchain, VanEck noted that solutions such as Polygon, Arbitrum, Optimism, among others, will consolidate themselves as dominant players in the blockchain ecosystem. “Together, these chains could accumulate 2x the volume recorded on Ethereum decentralized exchanges (DEX) by Q2024 10 and up to XNUMXx the number of transactions,” the firm said.
The year of NFT tokens
Although the NFT market is a long way from the frenzy seen in 2021, VanEck believes that 2024 will be the year of these digital assets. The firm predicts that the volume of NFT market activity will recover, setting a new all-time high, in terms of monthly volumes.
VanEck highlighted the importance of Ordinals, NFTs based on the Bitcoin blockchain, in boosting activity in this promising market.
Binance will no longer be the largest exchange
VanEck predicts that Binance to bid farewell to its position as the largest cryptocurrency exchange or important in the crypto industry, in terms of trading volume.
According to the firm, the legal problems faced by the exchange, which was accused of operating illegally by the United States authorities, and which imposed fines and sanctions on it worth a total of $4.000 billion dollars, will take away its position as a leader in the crypto industry, giving opportunity to other companies that are better prepared and have great potential.
It is important to note that Bit2Me was named by Cointelegraph Research as one of the most reliable cryptocurrency exchanges in the crypto industry. In the report titled “The New Crypto Exchange Standards”, Bit2Me received a score of 8 out of 10 thanks to its high level of security and regulatory compliance.
USDC will be the preferred stablecoin for institutional investors
Stablecoins will break a new all-time high in 2024, VanEck predicts. The firm noted that new stablecoins will arrive in the European market, regulated under the umbrella of the MiCA law and that, in addition, USDC will establish itself as the stablecoin of institutional investors.
USDC, issued by Circle, boasts of being the stablecoin best prepared to accelerate institutional crypto adoption, due to its issuer being registered in the United States, which means that it is subject to the jurisdiction's strict regulations against money laundering and other illicit activities. USDC also keeps a more transparent record of the reserves that back its issuance, which have been audited by major firms. All of this is a plus compared to USDT and the rest of centralized stablecoins, which will allow Circle's stablecoin to grow in adoption and regain market share.
Remittances, the killer use case of the blockchain industry
According to blockchain, the sending and receiving of Remittances will boost the adoption of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology globally this year. The firm said remittances will be the industry's killer use case, due to people's need to send value across borders and in an accessible manner.
Cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology provide an alternative to the traditional remittance market, allowing people to send or receive value from anywhere in the world, securely, instantly and with very low commission fees.
“Remittances will emerge as a killer blockchain use case, as the ease of output and spending of stablecoins make recipient payments cheap and useful in emerging markets.”
In addition to all of the above, the investment firm also released other crypto predictions for this year, such as that smart contract platforms will proliferate on Bitcoin and drive new yield opportunities for BTC holders; that decentralized platforms in the DeFi ecosystem will come to terms with regulation and systems like KYC; that Web3 games based on the Immutable network will explode in demand, increasing the price and market cap of IMX; and that decentralized physical infrastructure networks, known as DePin, will begin to capture the world's attention and interest, thanks to their numerous capabilities.
VanEck stressed that all these predictions were made based on the constant evolution of the crypto market and the need for investors to look towards the promising future of the industry. However, he emphasized that this is just a “speculative expedition” into the crypto field.
Continue reading: The three cryptonarratives that sparked the most interest in 2023
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