Bitwise's CIO has changed his mind about Bitcoin's future price: he now projects a valuation of one million dollars.

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, analyzes the economic and market variables that could lead Bitcoin to trade at $1 million.

Hougan recently presented an update to his perspective on Bitcoin's valuation, framing the $1 million figure not as a pipe dream, but as a statistically likely outcome. In his weekly report, the specialist acknowledged a shift in his technical view. He explained that what he considered absurd in 2018, he now describes as a tangible possibility based on the expansion of the store of value market.

Hougan's thesis is based not on enthusiasm, but on an analysis of the current financial infrastructure. According to the Bitwise executive, the common mistake when projecting cryptocurrency prices is assuming that the safe-haven asset market is static. However, by observing the evolution of gold and the growing distrust in fiat currencies, Hougan identifies a window of opportunity where Bitcoin's programmed scarcity coincides with an unprecedented demand for capital in the recent history of global markets.

The formula that could take Bitcoin to a million dollars

Hougan's argument regarding the price of Bitcoin and the possibility of reaching a valuation of $1 million is based on powerful logic. estimate is based on a proportional relationship between the total size of the store of value market, the share that Bitcoin could occupy within that market and its limited supply of 21 million coins.

Hougan argues that most analysts mistakenly believe that Bitcoin's market remains static when calculating its potential. In his view, that market continues to grow steadily, increasing the likelihood that the cryptocurrency's price will skyrocket over the next decade.

According to their analysis, there are three main reasons that support this projection. The first is the accelerated growth of the store of value marketThe global stock market, composed primarily of gold and, more recently, Bitcoin, has grown by an average of 13% annually since 2004. If this trend continues, its total value could rise from the current $38 trillion to approximately $121 trillion within ten years.

Hougan's second reason lies in the Progressive increase in Bitcoin's market share relative to goldToday it represents barely 4% of that market, but Hougan believes it doesn't need to match the value of gold to reach an extraordinary price. If the total store of value market were to reach $121 trillion, as projected, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of that share for each unit of the cryptocurrency to reach $1 million.

The third reason cited by the expert relates to the macroeconomic factors driving demand for digital assets. Among these, the following stand out: sustained increase in public debt in major economies, the geopolitical uncertainty and increasing ease of access to Bitcoin Thanks to the approval of instruments like spot ETFs in the United States and the opening up of the traditional financial sector, institutional capital flows into cryptocurrency are increasing, reinforcing its role as a safe-haven asset during times of economic stress.

Hougan summarizes his theory in a simple equation: a growing global safe-haven market, increased institutional adoption, and a limited supply of coins. If these conditions are met, the price of Bitcoin could reach one million dollars sooner than many imagine.

“From my point of view, the base scenario—that the store of value market will continue to grow as it has been, and bitcoin will continue to gain market share as it has been—leads to much, much higher prices than we have today.”He said. 

Projections that reaffirm Bitcoin's leap towards seven figures

The most optimistic projections regarding the future of Bitcoin are beginning to solidify among leading figures in asset management and financial technology. Several reports agree that the world's most well-known digital asset maintains an upward trend supported by far-reaching economic factors. Among them, the team at ARK Invest, led by [name missing], stands out. Cathi Woodwhich places Bitcoin at $1,2 million by 2030. The executive argues that the growth in demand and the impact of spot ETFs have changed the way pricing models are valued, generating expectations more aligned with their role in the global financial system.

Other crypto market experts, such as Adam BackBlockstream's CEO argues that Bitcoin's current value doesn't yet reflect the institutional influx that could increase significantly in the coming months. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency's price could reach between $500.000 and $1 million within the next few years. 

In that same direction, Arthur Hayes It projects a similar scenario driven by the repatriation of capital and movements within the US Treasury bond market, with a time target of three years.

This optimistic vision is further supported by figures such as Michael saylor, founder and executive chairman of Strategy, and Brian armstrongCoinbase CEO. Both emphasize that Bitcoin behaves like a modern form of digital property with advantages over real estate or gold. For them, the combination of the blockchain network's technological maturity and the pursuit of greater financial transparency creates fertile ground for valuations that, while they may sound ambitious today, reflect the natural evolution of capital in the digital age.