Bitcoin falters: experts monitor key support that could prevent a drop of thousands of dollars

Bitcoin has fallen 3% in the last few hours and is facing increasing technical and macroeconomic pressure. Experts point to this key support level as a potential obstacle to a deeper correction towards $96..

The cryptocurrency market faces a day of intense correction. Bitcoin is trading around $104.400Reflecting a drop of over 3% in the last 24 hours and wiping out more than $270.000 billion from the total value of the ecosystem. The decline of the leading cryptocurrency, which even briefly touched the $103.600 level, occurs within a context of widespread macroeconomic nervousnessThis was prompted by recent comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which have dampened expectations of interest rate cuts before the end of the year.

The reassessment of US monetary policy triggered another sell-off in risk assets, and Bitcoin was no exception. Now, all eyes are on a technical support level that could define the market's trajectory for the coming weeks.

Macroeconomic pressures set the pace for Bitcoin and the crypto market

Bitcoin's sensitivity to global liquidity conditions has intensified. In this context, The 30-day correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 increased to 0,74This reinforces the perception of cryptocurrency as a risky asset in the short term. While not new, this correlation is relevant because when traditional markets adjust for higher interest rate expectations, Bitcoin tends to follow suit, especially when leveraged positions are involved.

In the last 24 hours, Long positions totaling $1.340 billion were liquidatedThis amplified the downward pressure from the $108.000 per BTC level. This cascade of liquidations particularly affected traders betting on a rapid recovery, many of them in altcoins, as analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed out in a recent post shared on X.

“Altcoins are plummeting off a cliff, wiping out all those who think it’s wise to go long with leverage. This market needs a quick rebound in 1–2 weeks to regain some confidence.”, he pointed van de Poppe.

In this scenario, Bitcoin's technical structure has weakened. The cryptocurrency's price broke below its 30-day simple moving average at $112.660 and its 200-day exponential moving average at $108.780, two indicators that typically act as dynamic support. 

The break in BTC's price below these key levels has fueled the bearish momentum and left the market in a vulnerable position, where The next support level is at $103.500Experts point out that if this floor does not hold, the price of BTC could head towards $96.000, where there is a CME futures gap that has not yet been closed.

Bitcoin's internal strength behind price volatility

While the price of BTC reflects macroeconomic uncertainty, blockchain data paints a more complex and resilient internal picture. 

A recent analysis from the data platform CryptoQuant offers a crucial counterpoint to the current bearish narrative. According to the report, Bitcoin holders who have held their assets for more than three months They continue to show remarkable resilience.even after the correction from $120.000. These investor cohorts were the main beneficiaries of the 2025 rally and, for now, They have not given in to the sales pressure in the market.

In contrast, more recent investors—those who bought in the last few weeks—began taking profits on October 10, contributing to the cryptocurrency's price decline. The average purchase amount for these buyers, according to the recent reportIt is around $113.000, while the most relevant psychological threshold is at $93.561, corresponding to the cost base of those who have held BTC for between six and twelve months.

Analysts on the platform emphasize that if the price of BTC falls below that level, a new wave of selling could be triggered. But for now, the internal holding structure suggests that Bitcoin maintains a solid foundation, beyond the superficial volatility of the market.

$103.5K defines the next BTC move

The tension between external macroeconomic pressure and strong domestic demand converges at a single point: the support level of $103.500This price is not arbitrary; it represents the low of the rally that began in October and is considered by technical analysts to be the last major line of defense.

In the short term, this level acts as a boundary between two scenarios. If BTC manages to hold above $103.500, a window of stabilization could open. Selling pressure, fueled by massive liquidations of leveraged positions and profit-taking by recent holders, could dissipate, allowing structural demand to drive a technical rebound toward $108.000.

However, if risk aversion intensifies and the support level in question gives way sharply, the market could head toward $96.000, according to several experts, where a technical gap exists in CME futures. This potential correction would be significant, but it could also represent a necessary adjustment of the excess leverage currently present in the market.

But, amidst this panorama, Bitcoin maintains its long-term narrativeProgrammed scarcity, institutional adoption, and increasingly robust integration into the financial system through ETFs are key factors keeping the optimistic narrative alive, while the market awaits a more solid and sustainable balance.