Standard Chartered projects the end of Bitcoin's correction after analyzing key technical patterns. Its analysts anticipate a potential rally toward the end of the year despite current volatility.
The financial narrative surrounding the crypto market in recent weeks has been dominated by volatility, but a message of reassurance for investors and users is emerging from Standard Chartered. According to the bank, the recent corrective phase that has pushed Bitcoin's price down appears to have ended.
Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital asset research at the bank, has informed markets that technical indicators suggest selling pressure has subsided, opening the door to a potential recovery scenario for Bitcoin by the end of 2025.
Buy BTC: anticipate the next ATHOptimism about Bitcoin price
Kendrick's optimism regarding Bitcoin's price is based on a comparative analysis of market cycles. Although the decline from the October highs—when Bitcoin surpassed $126.000—to recent levels near $90.000 has been abrupt and painful for many participants, the movement is not anomalous.
Kendrick's analysis, reviewed by The Block, details that this pullback is proportionally identical to other corrections observed over the past two years. According to the bank, this confirms that the cryptocurrency continues to follow predictable cyclical patterns rather than facing a structural crisis. The main thesis suggests that The market has already purged the excess leverage. and is ready to resume its upward trend.
One of the strongest arguments presented by the bank for declaring the market "bottom" lies in corporate metrics linked to the ecosystem, specifically Strategy's performance. According to Standard Chartered, the company's net asset value (mNAV) multiple has returned to parity with 1,0. In simple terms, this indicates that the company's stock market valuation has fully aligned with the market value of its Bitcoin holdings.
Historically, when this indicator touches these low levels, it usually acts as a reliable signal that the sell-off has ended and that the market has found a solid floor on which to rebuild, Kendrick emphasized.
Low liquidity: the challenges facing the crypto market at year-end
Although the overall outlook points to a Bitcoin price recovery, the immediate environment presents challenges that require caution. The ecosystem is currently operating with heightened sensitivity due to a significant reduction in market depth. Data provided by the analytics firm Nansen reveals that liquidity has decreased since the liquidation events recorded in mid-October.
Nicolai Sondergaard, a research analyst at the firm, warns that while momentary dips toward the mid-$80.000 range are possible, the most likely scenario favors a rebound or stabilization at current levels. However, the lack of liquidity acts as a double-edged sword, since any moderate sell order can have a disproportionate impact on the BTC price, especially when the factor of financial leverage is added.
Therefore, for Standard Chartered's bullish thesis to materialize smoothly, the market must overcome immediate technical barriers. Analysts agree that Bitcoin urgently needs to reclaim the $95.000-$100.000 range and that securing this territory is vital to prevent structural weakening in the charts and to stem capital outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
In recent sessions, outflows from these funds increased pressure on the market, although this downward trend was halted on Thursday thanks to inflows of $75 million, an encouraging sign for investors. Reaching this psychological level again would be a strong indication that the downward trend has reversed, opening the door to the possibility of a new all-time high (ATH) before the end of the year.
Source: Soso Value
Outlook for the end of the year and beyond
Investors' attention is now focused on the calendar and potential trends that will shape the end of the year. Kendrick maintains his optimistic outlook for a significant rally toward the end of 2025. Although he no longer explicitly states his previous projection of reaching an all-time high of $200.000 per BTC in December, he remains confident in an upward trajectory that could lead the cryptocurrency to surpass its all-time high from October. This expectation keeps alive the hope of closing the year with a new record for Bitcoin.
Beyond the noise and volatility, the institutional outlook for the medium and long term remains solid. According to Standard Chartered's projections, an upward trajectory is foreseen, with the potential for Bitcoin to reach a value of up to $500.000 by 2028. This estimate is based on important macroeconomic factors, such as the evolution and consolidation of cryptocurrency-related financial instruments, the growing participation of institutional capital, and, finally, a gradual reduction in the volatility that has historically defined the cryptocurrency.
Taken together, these perspectives reinforce the belief that Bitcoin not only remains an attractive option for strategic investors, but is on track to solidify its position as a major reserve asset in the global economy.
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