Arthur Hayes predicted Bitcoin would fall to $100, but the cryptocurrency defied all odds and climbed back to $114 amid a wave of buying and increased institutional demand.
In the dynamic and often volatile cryptocurrency market landscape, Bitcoin stands out with notable resilience, holding steady around $114.000, despite bearish forecasts from key players like Arthur Hayes.
This unusual strength, driven by a backdrop of low exchange reserves and growing institutional demand, challenges the pessimistic narrative surrounding the leading cryptocurrency and highlights its resilience in a global economic environment marked by uncertainty and trade tensions.
This phenomenon takes on even greater significance considering that while Hayes anticipated a significant drop, Bitcoin has held firm, establishing a support that invites reflection on the depth and sustainability of its market position.
BITCOIN ONE CLICK AWAY WITH BIT2MEBitcoin hovers around $114.000 and shows resilience
Bitcoin has managed to consolidate a range around $114.000, serving as a key support level amid recent market fluctuations. Although it experienced a correction of nearly 3,5% last week, the digital asset has not suffered a crash, reflecting a balance between selling pressure and sustained buyer interest.
This stability is reflected in a price that barely fluctuates and a progressive accumulation that moves general sentiment toward expectations of a possible rebound beyond $115.000, a figure that could mark the beginning of a new bullish cycle.
Consolidation and market behavior
The latest data shows that this resilience is not a coincidence but the consequence of a temporary consensus among investors. The reduction in the supply available for sale, visible in the low stock market reserves, limits the pressure of massive liquidations and allows Bitcoin to sustain its price even in the face of adverse scenarios.
Despite the typical volatility of the crypto market, the strength exhibited at this stage is rare and translates into price consolidations that attract both retail and institutional investors.
Technical analysis supports this view, with indicators suggesting accumulation and a slight upward slope, anticipating that if the $115.000 barrier is breached, we could see a push toward levels close to $120.000 or even all-time highs, amplifying optimism in the community.
Hayes' bearish prediction falls through
Arthur Hayes, renowned co-founder of BitMEX and an influential voice in the cryptocurrency market, had predicted a drop in Bitcoin toward $100.000, citing macroeconomic factors such as the imposition of new tariffs in the United States, weak global credit growth, and rising geopolitical tensions. In line with his prediction, he sold cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ethena (ENA), and meme tokens like PEPE, which was interpreted by many as a sign of a lack of confidence in the broader market.
However, the peculiarity lies in the fact that Hayes did not sell a single satoshi of Bitcoin. This decision has sparked debate within the community, questioning the true depth of his bearish conviction on the leading asset. This strategy could be interpreted as capital protection through diversification into stablecoins and other less volatile assets, while maintaining Bitcoin as a long-term bet, trusting in its potential for recovery and growth following the alleged correction.
This dualism in their stance points to a scenario where predictions are limited by real market dynamics, demonstrating that volatility doesn't always translate into precipitous declines and that influential players can manage complex strategies that combine prudence and selective betting.
ENTER CRYPTO WITH CONFIDENCEStock market reserves remain surprisingly low
One of the most notable factors behind Bitcoin's current strength is the dramatic reduction in reserves held on exchanges. Recent data indicates that the amount of Bitcoin available for trading on centralized platforms has dropped to levels not seen since 2018, with approximately 2,357 billion BTC in circulation on these platforms by the end of July 2025.
Supply crisis and long-term accumulation
This drop in reserves has been described as a "supply crunch," reflecting holders' preference for withdrawing their assets and holding them in cold storage or self-custody, anticipating future appreciation. The reduction in liquid supply limits selling pressure and fosters a market structure characterized by stability and price strengthening.
Additionally, this trend is also observed in over-the-counter (OTC) reserves, which have reached historic lows, confirming that both large investors and miners are reducing the active circulation of their BTC. The combination of low supply and growing demand, especially institutional, has led to a favorable environment for the asset's consolidation and potential appreciation.
Institutional Participation and ETFs
Bitcoin's strength has been reinforced by the continued inflow of capital into spot ETFs, which are recording sustained positive daily flows. In recent months, billions of dollars have flowed into these funds in just two weeks, a clear sign of institutional confidence that counteracts the fears associated with bearish predictions and reflects a strategic interest in maintaining and increasing positions.
Hayes sells other cryptos but not Bitcoin
Arthur Hayes' recent activity reveals a notable restructuring of his portfolio, where he has liquidated large amounts of Ethereum, Ethena, and meme tokens, converting these assets into USDC stablecoins, which represent more than 80% of his balance. This safe haven strategy in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty and new tariffs points to risk management focused on liquidity and financial stability.
What stands out is the complete absence of selling in his Bitcoin portfolio, persisting in holding the core asset despite pressure and his own pessimistic outlook. This dissonance suggests that Hayes views Bitcoin as a long-term strategic reserve, maintaining confidence in its future potential and differentiating its behavior from other, more volatile cryptocurrencies.
Furthermore, Hayes has publicly stated that the expected correction for BTC and ETH is temporary, anticipating that after the correction, both could reclaim and surpass previous levels. His lack of selling in Bitcoin can therefore be interpreted as a further signal reinforcing the narrative of this cryptocurrency's resilience and intrinsic value within the market.
BUY BITCOIN ON BIT2MEKey support at $113.000 holds
The $113.000 support level has proven to be a crucial pillar for Bitcoin's price stability, acting as a barrier where buyers firmly position themselves to prevent further declines. Although the price oscillates around this level, the formation of an upward slope and candlesticks that fail to break strongly suggest that bulls maintain partial control.
Technical indicators and market domains
Analysis of Bitcoin's dominance against other cryptocurrencies shows a recovery within an ascending channel, which may predict further strength against altcoins. However, some chart patterns, such as the inverted bearish flag in the dominance, suggest caution, indicating that sharp moves could occur if key support levels are lost.
If Bitcoin manages to break above $115.000, it would open the door for an upward rally toward $120.000 and possibly higher, rekindling optimism in the market. Otherwise, a drop below $113.000, with a test of $107.000, could mark a critical turning point for future direction.
