Bitcoin: On-chain data confirms the dominance of long-term investors

The redistribution of Bitcoin supply to structural holders is marking a key shift in the market. On-chain data reveals increased strategic accumulation, reduced selling pressure, and strengthened technical support amidst the institutional surge.

Bitcoin price hit a new all-time high of $124.457 This month, consolidating its position as a strategic asset in the global financial ecosystem. But beyond price, on-chain data reveals a structural dynamic that is redefining the market's profile: a healthy redistribution of supply towards long-term investors. 

CoinMarketCap's Q2025 XNUMX market sentiment report confirms this trend, highlighting growing institutional participation and maturing holder behavior. 

In this context, analysts emphasize that this transition, observed in previous cycles, typically heralds sustained bullish phases by reducing selling pressure and strengthening support levels.

On-chain redistribution: Long-term hodlers outperform speculators

The data in the report expose a progressive redistribution of Bitcoin supply from short-term holders to investors with structural horizons. This dynamic, which intensified after the April correction, reflects a consolidation of capital in more patient hands, less likely to react to short-term fluctuations. 

Analysis from other platforms such as Glassnode and CryptoQuant also shows that over 92% of the new mined supply of BTC is being absorbed by entities classified as long-term holders (LTH), while the supply in the hands of short-term holders (STH) has fallen to historic lows.

In previous cycles, such as 2020-2021, LTH accumulation preceded sustained bullish moves by reducing the liquid supply available in the market. Currently, Bitcoin's illiquid supply continues to grow, indicating structural investor conviction. This redistribution not only lessens selling pressure but also reinforces technical support levels by consolidating BTC in hands that historically don't sell during minor corrections.

According to the most recent data from the platform, “More than 15,9 million bitcoins are controlled by long-term holders.”, that is, held by entities that have held their BTC for at least 155 days. This figure represents a 10,4% quarter-on-quarter increase in long-term Bitcoin holders.

In this context, institutional narrative also plays a key role. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust already holds around 749.000 BTC, while the United States has established a strategic Bitcoin reserve valued at approximately $23.000 billion, comprised of seized assets. Both institutional moves, along with growing institutional demand, reinforce the cryptocurrency's credibility and its integration into long-term financial strategies, aligning with the behavior observed on the blockchain.

Market maturity is reflected in sustained holdings

The market correction seen in April, which took the Bitcoin price from approximately $88.000 to $74.400, marked a turning point in the current structure. Beyond the superficial price pullback, on-chain data revealed a transfer of billions of dollars from weak hands to long-term holders. This classic short-term capitulation, characterized by panic selling, was taken advantage of by structural investors to accumulate aggressively.

According to experts, this type of redistribution has historically been a prelude to sustained recovery phases, as reducing the active supply in speculative hands reduces volatility and strengthens the market's resilience to exogenous events. In this case, the correction coincided with a complex macroeconomic environment, marked by monetary adjustments and geopolitical tensions. However, the response of structural capital was clear: accumulation in a state of weakness.

CoinMarketCap's Q3 2025 market sentiment report confirms this reading. Despite bouts of fear recorded in the Fear and Greed Index, institutional participation remained strong, and flows into Bitcoin ETFs continued to rise. This duality between tactical capitulation and strategic accumulation suggests the market is in an advanced stage of consolidation, with stronger fundamentals than in previous cycles.

Bitcoin reached a new ATH in August 2025

The month of August has seen a new milestone for Bitcoin: an all-time high of $124.457This rise was not solely due to speculative factors, but to a structural maturation of the market. Institutional demand has reached unprecedented levels, driven by the approval of ETFs in 2024, the unavoidable support of corporations like Strategy, which recently celebrated five years since its historic BTC purchase, and finally, the consolidation of Bitcoin as a reserve asset in public and private treasuries.

The positive correlation between Bitcoin and stock indices, such as the S&P 500, reflects a growing integration of the asset into diversified portfolios. Furthermore, the more benign regulatory environment in the United States has facilitated the entry of new institutional players, while the narrative of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve is gaining traction. The U.S. Treasury has adopted innovative and budget-neutral strategies to strengthen its commitment to the crypto ecosystem and position the country as a global market leader.

This context has generated sustained momentum, with constant flows into Bitcoin-based financial products and a significant reduction in liquidity. BTC's dominance, although declining in the last quarter, remains close to 58%, while its market capitalization is above $2,35 trillion. In this scenario, the behavior of structural holders becomes an anchor of stability, mitigating volatility and reinforcing Bitcoin's narrative as a global strategic asset.

Strategic implications for market structure

Thus, the way Bitcoin is being redistributed to long-term holders is changing the market's game. By concentrating in hands that don't typically sell in times of trouble, the amount of Bitcoin available for sale decreases, reducing the downward pressure on the price in times of correction. This strengthens support levels, making it more stable and less prone to sharp drops. In essence, the market structure becomes more predictable and robust, according to experts.

On the other hand, the growing participation of large institutions like BlackRock and even the United States government, through the Treasury, in the Bitcoin market is no coincidence. These entities view the leading cryptocurrency as a long-term strategic reserve, which is considered a clear sign of maturity in the ecosystem, also reflected in the rise of sophisticated financial products. Overall, it is a sign that professional risk and exposure management is gaining ground.

Finally, the current macroeconomic context supports this trend. Expectations of interest rate cuts, coupled with the expansion of the global money supply and greater regulatory clarity, create an ideal breeding ground for Bitcoin to continue consolidating its position as a strategic asset. All of this reveals that the market is entering a new phase, where speculation is giving way to well-thought-out and sustainable strategies.