The market is on the lookout for the possibility of the XRP spot ETF getting the green light, a move that could catapult its price to $4.
Financial analysts are showing palpable optimism, placing the probability of approval at 93%, which has raised expectations among investors and the crypto community. This scenario creates a favorable environment for XRP, which is emerging as one of the digital assets to watch due to its immediate growth potential.
XRP poised to take off, boosted by the proximity of a spot ETF
The possibility of an XRP ETF getting the green light has sparked conversations in the crypto ecosystem; a 93% probability, according to some models, turns mere speculation into a credible narrative for traders and institutions. The rumor of increased institutional inflow combines with retail appetite and media attention, creating a mix that could quickly drive XRP's price higher.
Experts agree that the approval of a spot ETF for the cryptocurrency issued by Ripple would be a key boost, both from a technical perspective and in terms of market confidence. However, they also warn that reactions depend not only on expectations, but also on any surprises that may arise during the process.
Source: CoinGecko
Is the SEC about to greenlight XRP ETFs?
When talking about a 93% probability of approval of a XRP spot ETF, it is important to understand what that number measures and where it comes from.
Typically, such estimates combine regulatory history, recent precedents in crypto-asset ETF approvals, and market signals such as letters of intent from issuers and tacit communication between financial actors.
For XRP, analysts consider specific factors, such as the evolution of Ripple's legal case with the US securities regulator, changes in the SEC's stance towards cryptocurrencies and digital assets, and, in general, the experience of other crypto ETF launches, which reduced regulatory uncertainty in the market.
Thus, 93%, as estimated by experts such as Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas, is not a certainty, but rather a statistical weighting that reflects the confidence built on public information and historical patterns, but always leaves room for regulatory surprises.
Institutional momentum behind the first US XRP spot ETF
But beyond the statistical models, the optimism surrounding XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is based on profound structural changes in the market. Institutions that were previously wary of cryptocurrencies are now seeking regulated options and reliable custodians to gain exposure to XRP, demonstrating a growing, more open and strategic institutional interest.
Another key point that everyone is waiting for is the next release of what would be the first XRP spot ETF in the United States, By REX-Osprey under the legal structure known as RICs (Registered Investment Companies)This exchange-traded fund is scheduled to trade next Thursday, September 18, following several recent portraits. However, experts they warn that this ETF may not be 100% cash like those sought by other asset managers under the 19b-4 regulatory process under the Securities Act of 1930.
Due to the flexibility offered by the RIC structure, the fund could include derivatives or even other ETFs in certain circumstances, which differs from the direct, physical purchase of the digital asset.
What to expect if the XRP spot ETF is approved?
According to experts, the possible approval of an ETF for XRP could act as a catalyst that triggers institutional demand of this asset, generating a significant impact on its price. This type of fund simplifies investment for large players, opening the door to capital flows that, due to their size, have the power to significantly impact the asset's price. Thus, what seemed like a distant movement can become a real driver of growth for XRP.
The cryptocurrency market often anticipates moves before official news is released, and XRP is no exception. Currently, its price exceeds 3 dollars, showing a solid recovery and approaching key levels, although it is still far from its all-time high of July, with a margin of 14%.
According to experts, the potential approval of a spot ETF for XRP could create a scenario in which institutional demand grows significantly while available supply remains limited. This dynamic, they explain, could generate significant upward pressure in the short and medium term, placing the price close to $4 and with the potential to even reach $10.
Analysts agree that the introduction of a spot ETF would not only facilitate a greater inflow of serious capital, but could also cement XRP as a relevant asset within larger investment portfolios.
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