Ethereum surprises the market: it rises 9% and aims for $5.900 in October.

Ethereum's price is above $4.400, with expectations of reaching $5.900 this month, although low buying volume raises concerns about its momentum.

Ethereum is experiencing a week of contrasts that has investors and analysts on edge. After a 9% rally in recent days, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization is trading at around $4.420, according to data from CoinGecko. The advance has restored confidence to bulls, but has also exposed weaknesses that could hinder the path to new all-time highs.

Based on data, market behavior and the general environment, analysts they point out that Ethereum could reach $5.900 this October, provided it manages to sustain the current momentum. The key is in overcome the resistance zone, which is located between $4.460 and $4.720, a bearish order block that could become the main short-term obstacle.

For experts, the market narrative currently moves between two poles. On the one hand, on-chain fundamentals show solid signs, such as a reduction in circulating supply, an increase in the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols, and renewed institutional interest. On the other hand, technical indicators warn that buying volume has not been as strong as the price, raising doubts about the sustainability of ETH's rally.

ETH: between institutional strength and volume fragility

Ethereum's performance on the weekly chart has been encouraging. For over a year, the $4.100 area acted as a difficult wall to overcome. However, in recent weeks, that level has transformed into a key support, reinforcing the perception that the market has shifted into a new phase. The breakout to a new all-time high of $4.953 cemented the bullish view, supported by a relative strength index (RSI) of 63,3, indicating that momentum continues to favor buyers.

Still, the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator sent a warning signal. Despite the ETH price breaking through the $4.100 resistance, the OBV failed to set a new high since March 2024. This divergence suggests that buyers haven't shown enough conviction to sustain a prolonged rally in the cryptocurrency's price. Simply put, the Ethereum price has risen faster than the volume supporting it, which could lead to corrections if additional capital inflows don't emerge.

On the other hand, the macroeconomic context also plays a relevant role. The temporary government shutdown in the United States has raised expectations that risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, will find additional momentum. In fact, since October 1, when this temporary shutdown began, the price of ETH has appreciated by 8%. In parallel, institutional demand for Ethereum has revived, reinforcing the narrative that the asset maintains strategic appeal beyond retail interest.

CoinGecko data shows Ethereum trading between $4.247 and $4.548 over the past 24 hours, with trading volume exceeding $37.000 billion. Market capitalization stands at $535.000 billion, reflecting the magnitude of interest that the digital asset continues to generate. 

Ethereum seeks to break boundaries and define its course in 2025.

According to experts, the immediate scenario for Ethereum is defined around two critical levels. If it manages to clearly break through the resistance at $4.700, the path to $5.000 would be clear, with subsequent targets at $5.300 and $5.900, according to the Fibonacci extension levels highlighted in AMBCrypto's analysis. In that case, October could become a historic month for the second-largest cryptocurrency on the market.

However, caution remains necessary. On a daily basis, the drop below $4.060 on September 25 marked a shift in the market structure, meaning the bears still have room to push. If the bulls fail to assert themselves in the $4.500–$4.700 zone, a pullback to $3.900 or even $3.500 cannot be ruled out. they said.

Additionally, Ethereum's momentum is reflecting the tension between two forces. On the one hand, the long-term narrative, sustained by institutional adoption, the growth of the DeFi ecosystem, and the reduction in ETH supply, keeps alive the expectation of a prolonged bullish cycle for the cryptocurrency. On the other hand, short-term technical indicators remind us that the market needs more volume to confirm this view.

October will mark the course of Ethereum

Ethereum has demonstrated remarkable resilience by recovering above $4.400, but the real challenge lies in sustaining that advance with solid fundamentals. Recent crypto market history teaches us that volume-free rallies are often vulnerable to abrupt corrections. At the same time, growing institutional participation and Ethereum's central role in the DeFi ecosystem offer structural support that cannot be ignored.

Therefore, analysts point out that October will be decisive. If buyers manage to overcome the resistance at $4.700 and consolidate the price above $5.000, the bullish narrative will gain strength and the targets of $5.300 and $5.900 will be within reach. If they fail, the market could retest lower support levels before resuming its upward trend.

Beyond technical levels, Ethereum remains a benchmark for risk appetite in the crypto sector and a reflection of confidence in blockchain technology. Its performance in the coming weeks will not only determine its own price direction but also serve as a benchmark for the rest of the market.