ETF experts are still not completely ruling out the possibility of the US SEC approving Ethereum spot ETFs in May this year.
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart on Monday lowered their estimates for the U.S. SEC's chances of approving Ethereum spot ETFs being sought by giants BlackRock, VanEck and Fidelity Investments, among others.
On Monday, Balchunas took to Twitter to explain that his approval ratings on these ether-based investment instruments have been reduced from 70% to 35%.
Balchunas explained that, although there are many reasons why the SEC should approve Ethereum spot ETFs, to date there are no key signals or indicators to be bullish on this possibility. The senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg highlighted that it is more likely that the SEC will approve these financial instruments in the long term and not in May of this year, as initially planned.
“35% is not 0%, it is still possible, and in the long term we believe it will happen”, Balchunas commented.
At X, Seyffart cited his colleague's remarks, emphasizing that the current cycle for Ethereum ETFs feels like the complete opposite of the approval cycle for Bitcoin ETFs, which began trading on U.S. exchanges in January after being authorized by the SEC.
According to Seyffart, the further the process of ether-based ETFs progresses, the less likely it is that they are approved this year.
SEC meets with Grayscale to discuss Ethereum ETF
Although experts estimate that Ethereum ETFs have a very low chance of receiving regulatory approval in 2024, investment asset managers remain focused on achieving SEC approval.
Recently, it became known that Grayscale Investments, the provider of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) Bitcoin ETF and several crypto-asset-based investment funds, met with the SEC to discuss matters related to the Ethereum exchange-traded fund. While such meetings are seen as progress and a good sign, Balchunas said the lack of feedback from SEC staff to Grayscale makes him less optimistic about the potential approval of the cash fund.
Unlike the SEC's approach to approving Bitcoin ETFs, the lack of active discussion about Ethereum ETFs, their absence from The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) listings, and the lack of promotional material about these investment vehicles make approval less imminent than with Bitcoin ETFs.
JPMorgan, one of the world’s largest investment banks, which is bullish on Ethereum innovation and its smart contracts, also sees the chances of approval for Ethereum spot ETFs in May at less than 50%.
Ethereum Surpasses $4.000
Despite the little optimism that experts have about the approval of Ethereum ETFs in May, the cryptocurrency is showing a exceptional performance in the market, exceeding $4.000 per unit, at the time of writing this article.
The price of ETH is trading at around $4.001,44, according to data from CoinMarketCap. ETH has not seen this level for two years, when it reached its current all-time high or ATH.
Source: CoinMarketCap
Over the past 30 days, the price of ETH has surged by almost 60%, driven by optimism from the crypto community and investors regarding the launch of Dencun, the next major upgrade of the blockchain network, which will be activated on mainnet tomorrow, March 13.
Dencun is a new update, which follows Shapella, which will introduce a new transaction type to Ethereum, in order to improve the scalability and throughput of transactions on the network's layer 2.
Continue reading: Ethereum Gas Fees Soar Amid New Bullish Rally
