On the first anniversary of Bitcoin's fourth halving, the leading cryptocurrency continues to face the market with bullish prospects, driven by regulatory advances and an environment of growing institutional confidence.
Kaiko Research analysts have published a new report, focusing on how Bitcoin continues to capture global attention amid a decisive phase of its market cycle: the first full year after the April 2024 halving. The report, titled «Bitcoin's Halving Anniversary: This Time Was Different», examine the Bitcoin's behavior during this post-halving year, comparing it with previous cycles and highlighting key differences.
Contrary to previous halvings, the current Bitcoin cycle has been influenced by unprecedented factors, such as the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and a greater regulatory clarity, elements that have boosted confidence in the cryptocurrency among both institutional and retail investors.
TRADE BITCOIN ON BIT2MEAs the current Bitcoin cycle progresses, all eyes are on the possibility of a new bull run fueled by the scheduled scarcity halving, increased regulatory clarity, and institutional support. Is Bitcoin ready for a new bull run? Analysts believe regulatory clarity and its growing adoption as a store of value will fuel a renewed rally following the 2024 halving.
The impact of the 2024 halving on Bitcoin
El halving Bitcoin's halving is a scheduled event that halves the reward miners receive for validating transactions, promoting lower inflation and controlled scarcity of the digital asset. The halving, which took place in 2024, roughly a year ago, has had a peculiar impact on Bitcoin's performance.
According to Kaiko Research experts, the 2024 post-halving performance has been the lowest in percentage terms compared to previous cycles where the cryptocurrency's increases were explosive. While significant increases in the price of Bitcoin were observed after the halvings of 2012, 2016 and 2020, this new cycle has shown a much more moderate increase, they indicated in the report.
This fact is due, in part, to the elevated global macroeconomic uncertainty that has restricted Bitcoin's traditional upward volatility. According to analysts, during the six months following the 2024 halving, the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (FRED) averaged 317 points. In contrast, the index averaged 107 points in 2012, 109 points in 2016, and 186 points in 2020 during the same periods following the network halving.
"In the first quarter of 2025, global trade tensions intensified and risk aversion sentiment rose sharply.", said Kaiko Research.
Furthermore, mining activity has reached record levels, but without a commensurate increase in price, which has compressed profit margins for companies involved in this activity. Likewise, transaction fees experienced a momentary spike due to the introduction of the Runes protocol, but subsequently declined, reflecting controlled dynamism in the network. For analysts, this scenario has caused a change in Bitcoin's dynamics that, while less dizzying, could be laying the groundwork for a more sustainable rally.
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Regulatory clarity influences investor confidence
Amid this situation, regulatory clarity, especially in the United States, emerges as a key factor in restoring investor confidence in Bitcoin. According to the report, the arrival of new leadership at the SEC has raised expectations about the coherent and rational treatment of cryptocurrencies as financial assets. To date, there are more than 72 applications for cryptocurrency-based ETFs, including popular altcoins and memecoins, awaiting approval from the agency, signaling a growing institutional appetite for regulated cryptoasset products.
On the other hand, the legal certainty that new policies promoted by Paul Atkins and other regulators in the country will provide could create a more favorable environment for institutional investment, mitigating investor reservations about the lack of clear regulation.
According to analysts, the regulatory clarity that has emerged around digital assets in the United States under the Donald Trump administration has, in part, changed Bitcoin's price behavior. Currently, the leading cryptocurrency is less volatile than in previous years, is also more mature, and while it can potentially offer more moderate returns, they are also more stable, experts noted.
TRADE WITH CONFIDENCE – BUY BITCOIN HEREThe massive influx of ETFs boosted growth
A key phenomenon linked to this increased regulatory clarity is the proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs. ETFs allow investors to access Bitcoin exposure without having to directly manage cryptocurrencies, simplifying entry for traditional and institutional funds. Over the past year, there has been an outstanding daily net flow, with cumulative inflows exceeding $ 36.600 millones of dollars, to date, in US Bitcoin spot ETFs alone.
The approval and launch of spot ETFs has helped boost Bitcoin's price, facilitating a shift in capital toward regulated products and reinforcing market stability and confidence. Companies such as ARK 21Shares, Fidelity, and BlackRock are leading the inflow of investment, demonstrating the serious and sustained interest of players with large volumes under management in Bitcoin.
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ETFs combine the flexibility of stock market trading with lower costs, liquidity, and transparency, characteristics that make them highly attractive to diversified investors. Furthermore, their mass adoption is emerging as a catalyst that could further accelerate Bitcoin's historic growth cycle, potentially taking the digital asset to new highs by the end of 2025. This institutional financial boom could cement Bitcoin's position as a global strategic asset.
Volatility and current macroeconomic factors
Despite market optimism, Bitcoin's current dynamics are being shaped by significantly lower volatility compared to previous cycles. As mentioned, in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, Bitcoin's short-term volatility decreased significantly, falling from values above 200% in 2012 to levels of approximately 50%. This change indicates the asset's growing maturity, shaping it as a more stable investment but possibly with less disruptive returns.
However, macroeconomic uncertainty persists, with international trade tensions and monetary policy changes keeping many investors cautious. The recent weakness of the US dollar, for example, has contributed to Bitcoin's rise as a safe haven from global economic volatility, reinforced by its growing correlation with assets like gold.
EXPLORE OPPORTUNITIES – GO TO BIT2ME LIFEThus, although institutional demand is growing and the regulatory environment is improving, factors such as inflation, central bank policies, and technological developments remain decisive factors in Bitcoin's price performance. In this context, experts agree that, despite a slower start, the rally driven by regulation and ETFs could become the main driver for Bitcoin to reach a new bullish cycle in the coming months, highlighting its resilience and adaptability in an evolving market.
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