October could once again be a bullish month for Bitcoin. On-chain data reveals structural patterns that predict a rebound in the second half of the month.
As the calendar progresses, crypto market analysts and traders are beginning to pay close attention to the signs that have historically predicted a rebound in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
This phenomenon, known as “Uptober”, has been documented by platforms such as CryptoQuant and CoinGlass, which show how on-chain data reveals structural patterns that tend to repeat themselves year after year.
In 2025, conditions appear to be in place again for Bitcoin to experience a positive second half, driven by internal market dynamics and macroeconomic factors that could amplify the move.
Create your account and take advantage of Uptober: trade Bitcoin on Bit2MeSeasonality in crypto: a trend that is consolidating
Historically, October has shown remarkable consistency in Bitcoin's performance. According to data compiled by CryptoQuant, since 2020, a USD 100 investment made on October 1st has historically grown to reach between USD 120 and USD 125 by the end of the month. The platform emphasizes that this behavior has been repeated in nine of the last ten years, which has led the market to name this period as “Uptober”, a reference to the bullish momentum that typically characterizes the second half of the month.
In a publication Recently, the platform's analysts emphasized that this growth pattern in October is not limited to superficial price observations. The reality is that On-chain metrics support the narrative with concrete data.
CryptoQuant has documented how Bitcoin reserves on exchanges tend to decline by between 0,5% and 1% during the second half of October. This outflow of BTC to self-custody wallets or cold storage reduces the supply available for sale, which restricts liquidity and amplifies the impact of any incoming demand. In other words, with fewer coins available on the market, even moderate buying pressure can generate significant movements in Bitcoin's price.
Crypto October: Long-Term Accumulation Fuels Market Rally
Market behavior in October also reflects a shift in the profile of participants. During the first half of the month, short-term traders generally dominated, keeping prices relatively stable. However, starting mid-month, long-term holders began accumulating again. This shift in market composition generated a shift in sentiment that favored an upside.
According to experts, accumulation by long-term holders not only reduces the circulating supply but also sends a signal of confidence to the rest of the market. As these players withdraw their coins from exchanges, the perception that Bitcoin's price could rise is reinforced, incentivizing new purchases. This positive feedback loop has been observed in previous years and could be repeated in 2025, especially if the current conditions of low supply and growing institutional interest continue.
Furthermore, analysts indicated that the supply of stablecoins tends to increase during this period, so the inflow of new capital could revive the positive sentiment in the crypto ecosystem. This additional liquidity strengthens purchasing power and accelerates price movements. Together, the decline in foreign exchange reserves, the accumulation of holdings by holders, and the inflow of liquidity create a favorable environment for the expected rallies at the end of the month.
Accumulate BTC with confidence: create your account in minutes, hereOther factors pointing to a positive October for Bitcoin
While on-chain dynamics provide a solid basis for anticipating Bitcoin's behavior in October, macroeconomic factors will also play an important role. According to analysts, this quarter, the market will be watching two key events: the close rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the early meeting between leaders of the United States and China. Both events could influence global sentiment and the liquidity available for risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
A new rate cut by the Fed could stimulate capital inflows into alternative assets, including Bitcoin, by reducing the attractiveness of traditional fixed-income instruments. On the other hand, any sign of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies could improve risk perceptions and favor investment in emerging markets and disruptive technologies like blockchain.
Therefore, these external factors, combined with internal signals from the crypto market, could reinforce the October bull run. If the accumulation trend, reduced supply, and influx of liquidity continue, Bitcoin could close the month with a positive performance, as it has in most previous years.
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A key October for the price of Bitcoin
Considering the above, it's clear that the Bitcoin market is at a pivotal moment, with signs that have already influenced its trajectory in previous seasons. On the one hand, the amount of Bitcoin available on exchanges is declining, indicating that more investors are choosing to withdraw their assets and store them for the long term. All of this is typically associated with growing confidence and an intention to hold the cryptocurrency for the long term, removing it from immediate selling pressure.
At the same time, there's an increase in long-term accumulation, meaning that both large and small holders are choosing to hold on to their holdings, waiting for more favorable conditions or future profits. This trend helps reduce the volatility that Bitcoin's active circulation typically generates, stabilizing the market and signaling a more mature behavior.
Finally, another relevant indicator is the increase in the supply of stablecoins, which act as immediate liquidity for the purchase of Bitcoin or other digital assets. Their growth facilitates the inflow of fresh capital, boosting market dynamics.
Together, these factors are creating an environment conducive to significant Bitcoin price movements during the second half of October, market analysts anticipate.
