Bitcoin could reach $120.000, but it must first break above this key level, analyst says.

Bitcoin is in a decisive phase: it could reach $120.000, but first it must overcome key technical resistance at $110.500.

After weeks of technical consolidation, the world's most valuable digital asset is at a crossroads: A strong break above the $110.500 resistance could trigger an accelerated rally toward $120.000, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. 

Adler's analysis, supported by technical indicators and futures market behavior, has gained notoriety for its accuracy in previous cycles. Moreover, he is not alone. Various experts agree that the current environment, marked by institutional accumulation, favorable macroeconomic signals, and a clearer regulatory infrastructure, is paving the way for a renewed bullish momentum. 

Technical Analysis: The $110.500 Wall and Bullish Momentum

The resistance at $110.500 has become the market's turning point. According to Adler, who points out that only if this ceiling is broken with a significant volume, we could see the price move towards $115.000 and eventually approach $120.000 per BTC.

Currently, the Bitcoin price is trading in a narrow band, with solid technical support at $108.000 and $105.000, levels that have been defended by institutional buyers, providing confidence in price stability.

The analyst believes that technical indicators provide encouraging signs. For example, the 30-day momentum trend shows a positive trend, up 4,2%, indicating that bullish strength is present. Furthermore, open interest in futures contracts has increased by 7% in the last month, which is considered a clear sign that more institutional players are entering the market, betting on an upward movement. Another relevant piece of data is the dominance of short liquidations, i.e., the forced closure of short positions that drives the price upward. Finally, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, a classic signal that traders use to anticipate a sharp move, although it is not yet clear in what direction.

Beyond prices and volumes, fundamentals also show signs of strength. The annual growth rate comparing market capitalization to realized capitalization has turned from negative to positive, suggesting real value is accumulating and the market's foundation is consolidating.

Taken together, all of these elements paint a picture of cautious optimism, with Bitcoin at a crossroads, with solid support beneath its feet and resistance that, if broken strongly, could catapult its value to new all-time highs.

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Institutional accumulation: the silent engine of the market

One of the most significant factors behind Bitcoin's optimism is institutional accumulation. Rodrigo Miranda, founder of Bitcoin University, points out that this cycle is different because large funds are buying while small investors are selling. According to him, institutional demand exceeds daily supply, which could take Bitcoin to $124.000 in the short term and up to $220.000 in the long term.

In this context, Adler also argues that Powell's tone in the FOMC minutes and the outcome of the tariff negotiations will be key drivers for Bitcoin's performance in the coming days. 

Thus, the macroeconomic environment also plays in Bitcoin's favor. Potential monetary easing in the United States, with rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is creating a favorable climate for alternative assets. Added to this are geopolitical tensions and attacks on traditional financial systems, which reinforce the notion of Bitcoin as a safe haven asset. 

Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs are attracting steady inflows, reflecting growing confidence among institutional investors. The clearer regulatory infrastructure, especially following Donald Trump's return to the presidency, has softened the financial approach to cryptocurrencies, allowing for greater integration with traditional markets.

This set of technical, institutional, and macroeconomic factors is shaping a scenario where Bitcoin could break through its current ceiling and reach new all-time highs. But as always in the crypto world, volatility is part of the game, and analysts recommend maintaining a strategic and cautious outlook.