Analyst warns: Bitcoin could fall back to $105.000 or break to new highs

Analysts are debating whether Bitcoin's price will correct to $105.000 or maintain its bullish momentum toward new records in 2025.

Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has entered August with mixed signals. After reaching all-time highs of $123.091 in mid-JulyThe cryptocurrency's price has retreated slightly, stabilizing around $112.000 and $114.000 currently. This move, while only a slight 8% correction from its current ATH, has sparked debate among market analysts about whether this is a simple consolidation or the start of a deeper correction.

Bitcoin Between Support and Recalibration: Adler and Glassnode's Analysis of the Next Stage of the Market

Axel Adler Jr., market analyst and frequent contributor to platforms such as CryptoQuant, notes Bitcoin's structural support between $110.000 and $113.000 remains key. However, he argues that if it breaks, we could see the cryptocurrency's price drop to $105.000.

Adler Jr. also highlighted that the 30-day momentum has dropped from +8,6% to +3,0%, indicating a balance between supply and demand. He believes that for BTC's price to regain strength, “We need to see that momentum return to the +10% range or more.”.

It also pointed out that Activity on the Bitcoin network has decreased, indicating that transfer volumes are down 23,6% and active addresses are down 11%. These metrics, according to the expert, suggest lower retail participation in the Bitcoin ecosystem, and while this technical lull doesn't necessarily imply weakness, the analysis does reflect a pause in the buying enthusiasm that characterized the market in recent months.

In addition, Glassnode's principal investigator, known as CryptoVizArt, agrees that the Bitcoin market is going through a recalibration phase. He noted that, “with the market retesting the low liquidity range below the $114.000 threshold level, the euphoria phase is on hold While Bitcoin is undergoing a period of reevaluation." According to his analysis, signs across all market sectors point to a cooling of bullish momentum, more cautious positioning, and a moderation in risk appetite. In other words, we are in a recalibration phase, where the overwhelming emotion that typically characterizes bullish peaks gives way to a necessary pause for a more calm assessment.

The expert revealed All signs, from technical indicators to investor behavior, point to a market slowing its bullish momentum, adopting a more cautious stance, and seeing a moderation in risk appetite. Specifically, significant changes are being observed in the spot market. For example, the Relative Strength Index, which measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold, fell from 47,4 to 35,8, entering oversold territory. This suggests that the cryptocurrency may have fallen more than it "should" in the short term, he indicated.

Furthermore, other metrics analyzed by CryptoVizArt, such as CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta), which indicates the difference between buy and sell volume, showed a marked deterioration, with a negative jump from -$107,1 million to -$220 million. Alongside this scenario, the total trading volume also dropped significantly, from $8.400 billion to $7.500 billion, a sign that fewer participants are involved and that market liquidity is decreasing. All of this suggests that selling pressure has intensified and market momentum is diminishing.

CryptoVizArt concluded that the current scenario reflects a transition from euphoria to reassessment. Although conditions show signs of overselling and some exhaustion in selling, which could lead to a price rebound, there is a delicate fragility in the market structure. This means that any negative news or an unexpected surge in demand could tip the balance. either deepening the correction or resuming the upward trend. 

In short, both Adler and CryptoVizArt agree that Bitcoin is at a crossroads. The market's decision, this delicate technical balance, and the behavior of participants will determine whether the cryptocurrency begins to climb to new highs or, on the contrary, faces a correction to lower levels, placing us at a key moment for investors.

Institutional capital in the cryptocurrency bull market

One of the pillars of the current cryptocurrency bull run has been the massive inflow of institutional capital. In July, Bitcoin ETFs registered more than $6.000 billion in net flows, according to data from Soso Value. This support has been crucial in keeping the price of BTC at high levels.

Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, has also increased his BTC positions, reaffirming his long-term view. Other public companies, such as Metaplanet, also continue to accumulate BTC massively. 

On the regulatory front, the United States has shown signs of greater openness. The more conciliatory tone of the SEC, followed by the CFTC, has contributed to improving the investment climate. However, global volatility and geopolitical tensions remain factors that could disrupt the outlook.

Adler Jr. warns that, although the regulatory environment has improved, we cannot ignore macroeconomic risks. According to him, the Fed's monetary policy and US employment data remain critical variables that will impact the crypto market. Furthermore, trade conflicts and risk aversion have affected traditional markets, also dragging down digital assets. Despite this, he notes that the outflow of BTC from exchanges, considered a sign of accumulation, continues, which could strengthen the basis for a renewed bullish momentum.

What to expect in the coming months?

Bitcoin is at a crucial point today that could determine much of what's coming for its price in the short term. Technical support around $110.000 will be decisive. define the direction of the marketIf it holds, the price could attempt to break above $121.000 again and reach levels such as $125.000 or even $130.000, experts say. 

On the other hand, a break below this support, accompanied by increased put option volume, could lead to a correction toward $105.000. This scenario would not necessarily imply a change in trend, but rather a longer pause in the market's bullish cycle. 

Analysts agree that institutional interest, favorable regulation, and macroeconomic dynamics will be key factors in the short term. In the meantime, the market appears to be in wait-and-see mode, assessing whether the next move will be a technical correction or a new all-time high.

As Adler Jr. points out, there are no signs of capitulation, but neither are there any signs of euphoria, so The current balance could be broken in any direction, and upcoming economic data will be decisive. “The balance between macroeconomic risks and institutional demand will determine whether the current macroeconomic correction becomes the basis for the continuation of the cycle or extends into a deeper correction phase until new drivers emerge,” he concluded.