Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP rally as investors bet on a US rate cut.

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are showing significant gains, driven by market expectations of a possible interest rate cut in the United States.

The top three cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, have started September with a slight but unexpected rally, challenging their reputation as the most bearish month of the year for the crypto market. 

This week, the price of Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, is hovering around $111.300, following a rise of nearly 3%. Ethereum and XRP are trading around $4.300 and $2,96, respectively, following price increases of 3,4% and 5% over the past seven days. 

Although slight, this boost is important for analysts, who emphasize that it does not come from technical improvements or network updates, but from a macroeconomic expectation that is capturing the attention of traders and institutional investors. Experts talk about the possible interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve next September 17. 

In an environment where liquidity is key, cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP, are positioned as the first to react to any sign of monetary easing.

The crypto market points to the Fed as a catalyst for a bullish rally.

The narrative surrounding this possible interest rate cut by the Fed has gained traction on platforms such as Polymarket, where bets give a 87% probability of a 25 basis point cut. 

But not everyone is satisfied with that figure. Rick Rieder, CIO of BlackRock, said recently that the Fed should consider a more aggressive cut in 50 basis points, arguing that current economic conditions warrant it. These kinds of statements have sparked optimism among crypto investors, who see the Fed's decision as a potential catalyst to reverse September's bearish pattern and pave the way for a bullish fourth quarter for cryptocurrencies. 

Bitcoin and Ethereum: Resilience Amid Whale Pressure

Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, even in the face of significant selling movements. 

According to data shared by market analysts at X, the largest outflow of BTC from whale wallets in the last two years has been recorded. Despite this, the price has remained range-bound between $108K and $112K, suggesting the market is absorbing the pressure without losing its support structure. 

Furthermore, data shows that over 70% of Bitcoin's supply is held by long-term holders, reinforcing the silent accumulation narrative.

Ethereum, for its part, has found stability in the $4.100 to $4.600 range, driven by network upgrades and growing institutional demand. While spot ETFs have seen recent outflows for this cryptocurrency, developers continue to work on scalability and energy efficiency improvements, helping to maintain the interest of more technical investors. 

The divergence between BTC and ETH in ETF flows has been interpreted by some as a temporary rotation, rather than a structural shift in market preference.

Experts debate the keys to XRP's possible rally

As Bitcoin and Ethereum consolidate their positions, XRP has garnered attention for different reasons. The cryptocurrency, which has been mired in regulatory controversy in recent years, now finds itself at the center of a speculative debate: Could it reach $3 to $10 by 2025? 

The projection, which some consider exaggerated, has been supported by analysts such as Ali Martinez, who in X he pointed that XRP has broken out of a descending channel that had kept it stagnant since mid-2022. According to Martinez, this technical breakout could mark the start of a new bullish phase, especially if the SEC's approval of XRP-linked spot ETFs is confirmed.

September 17: A key date for a bullish Q4

Attention now turns to the upcoming Fed meeting on September 17, which could redefine the direction of the crypto market for the remainder of the year. If the interest rate cut is confirmed, risky assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum could benefit from a more liquid and favorable environment for speculative investment. 

At X, several analysts agree that September could close in the green for the first time in years, breaking a pattern that has kept traders on alert since 2013. Of the last 12 Septembers, 8 have been negative for Bitcoin, according to data from CoinGlass.

However, the possibility that this year will be different has generated an optimistic narrative that extends beyond the short term. Some experts suggest that the Fed's rate cut could be the starting point for a bullish fourth quarter, especially if combined with the approval of new crypto-linked financial products like XRP. In this context, Ripple's cryptocurrency could benefit not only from its technical structure, but also from a clearer regulatory environment and greater institutional adoption.

As September approaches and the Fed's decision looms, investors are preparing for a possible change in the cycle. If history repeats itself, the fourth quarter could bring a rally that redefines expectations for 2025. And if XRP manages to consolidate its narrative, the debate over its target price could go from speculation to a tangible possibility. In any case, what happens this month will mark a turning point in the relationship between monetary policy and the crypto market.