Bernstein and other industry experts anticipate that Bitcoin will bottom out near $60.000 before laying the institutional groundwork for a solid recovery this year.
The cryptocurrency market is undergoing a structural readjustment that has led Bitcoin to trade 40% below its all-time highs, hovering around $77.000 at the time of writing. This correction, defined by the analysis firm Bernstein as a "short-term bearish cycle," is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a marked shift in capital flows toward gold.
However, despite Bitcoin's immediate price weakness, analysts generally agree that the asset is in the final stages of its downward trend. The strength of corporate treasuries and the consolidation of spot ETFs suggest that, once the technical support level around $60.000 is reached, the ecosystem will be positioned for a sustained recovery throughout 2026, based on its institutional maturity and resilience to the fragmentation of the global financial system.
Accumulate Bitcoin before the 2026 surgeBitcoin seeks its equilibrium point amid market tension
According to Bernstein's latest report, Bitcoin could stabilize near the highs of the previous cycle, establishing a floor in the $60.000 range during the first half of the year.
The analysis team led by Gautam Chhugani warns that the market is currently facing a critical supply gap. Approximately 46% of the total Bitcoin supply is trading below market value, particularly in the $70.000 to $80.000 price range. This area, lacking structural support, acts as a vulnerable zone during periods of volatility, comparable to an empty space that amplifies price movements.
For his part, James Butterfill, strategist at CoinShares, supports The idea is that Bitcoin is increasingly behaving like part of the global macroeconomic ecosystem. In times of financial stress, liquidity fluctuations and changes in interest rates have a stronger influence than the cryptocurrency's own fundamentals. According to him, this pattern explains why, at the first signs of a market correction, Bitcoin is often quickly sold off by investors seeking immediate liquidity.
Despite this challenging environment, experts highlight a point of opportunity. Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to gold is at its lowest level in the last two years, around 4%, in response to increased gold purchases by central banks, especially in China and India. According to experts, this imbalance has left Bitcoin in a relatively undervalued position, which could create room for a rally if macroeconomic conditions begin to ease.
Between the pressure from ETFs and the institutional resistance of the crypto market
The prolonged weakness in Bitcoin's price has led several specialists to adjust their projections on when the bear market might end.
In line with Bernstein's projections, Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, warns that Bitcoin's value could fall back to its 200-week moving average, located near $58.000. In his opinion, this indicator and the so-called realized price—which reflects the average purchase price for all investors—often coincide with historical accumulation zones and strong long-term opportunities.
Thorn also notes that recent outflows from cash ETFs have intensified selling pressure, with net withdrawals exceeding $3.000 billion since mid-January. This negative capital flow has transformed the $81.000 level into a significant barrier that, for now, limits any attempt at a sustained recovery.
Meanwhile, Compass Point analysts Ed Engel and Michael Donovan interpret the current market behavior as an advanced stage of the bear market. Their assessment detects notable strength among long-term holders, especially those holding their assets for more than six months, concentrated in the $60.000 to $68.000 range.
According to these analysts, only a major external event, comparable to the 2022 financial crisis or a sharp drop in US stocks, could trigger a decline to $55.000 per BTC. But beyond these extreme scenarios, experts highlight the structural strength of the crypto ecosystem, supported by an unprecedented institutional base that manages over $165.000 billion through regulated financial vehicles.
Take advantage of the correction and trade BTCBitcoin in 2026: from speculation to monetary maturity
Despite the current correction, with Bitcoin trading near $77.000 according to market data, analysts maintain an optimistic outlook on its performance through 2026. They agree that the cryptocurrency's behavior is not solely determined by technical factors, but also by political events that could redefine the economic landscape in the United States.
For example, Bernstein points out that strengthening the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and more receptive leadership to crypto innovation within the Federal Reserve could become turning points for the sector.
Experts also highlight that the narrative surrounding Bitcoin is undergoing a profound transformation and that it is no longer considered a high-risk speculative instrument, as it was in its early years. Now, the cryptocurrency is beginning to solidify as a form of “monetary option,” an alternative that offers independence from traditional financial control mechanisms. In other words, in contexts where political instability or restrictions on capital flows prevail, Bitcoin has the ability to operate without intermediary authorization, making it an attractive option for institutions seeking to reduce their exposure to sovereign risk.
Therefore, although the short-term environment remains weak, the current price correction could serve as the foundation for a new recovery phase for Bitcoin. Reduced market leverage and stabilized volatility create healthier conditions for sustained growth.
In this new context, Bitcoin is beginning to gain recognition not only for its speculative behavior, but also for its resistance to censorship and its ease of transfer in the global financial system.
Join Bit2Me and access Bitcoin todayExperts see signs of recovery in Bitcoin
In summary, market analysts and experts interpret the current correction phase not as a deterioration of Bitcoin's fundamentals, but as a necessary purge of speculative positions amid geopolitical uncertainty.
So, while gold has captured the attention of sovereign treasuries in the short term, the institutional infrastructure built around cryptocurrencies in recent years guarantees a much higher floor than in previous cycles. If the $60.000 support level acts as both a technical and psychological base, the market could enter another accumulation phase that, according to the consensus of Bernstein and his peers, would culminate in a significant rally once global liquidity stabilizes and institutional confidence translates into new strategic capital allocations.
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