Bitcoin starts this week on a strong footing, with the Fear and Greed Index at normal “fear” levels, following macro signals of stability and growth, As Analyst Predicts End of Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle.
Historically, market analysts have identified that Bitcoin moves in four-year cycles, which are usually closely linked to the halving of the network. However, some analysts such as Willy Woo, have pointed out that the cryptocurrency may have begun to overcome these four-year cycles, what does this mean for the future of Bitcoin?
The end of four-year cycles for Bitcoin
In October 2021, Bitcoin analyst Willy Woo applied with a thesis titled “The Last Cycle”, in which he expressed his doubts and ideas about the end of the “predictable” four-year cycles in the price of Bitcoin.
The analyst's approaches predict that the current market has evolved a lot and is heading towards an unpredictable scenario, since the ecosystem of influence, including supply and demand, has become much more complex. In this sense, for Woo this new cycle will unfold as Bitcoin adoption reaches its saturation point.
Willy Woo himself has pointed out that the first indicators supporting his theory have already appeared, as he has noticed that the market has broken with the traditional four-year cycle: one bullish year, another bearish year and, finally, two years of slow recovery.
To prove his point, Woo points out that Bitcoin has experienced three consecutive bull markets and three short bear markets since 2019.
To reinforce his idea of an end of cycle, Woo has also pointed out that in the past Each four-year cycle ends with a strong capitulation, However, this time there have been several small capitulations.
Willy Woo's thesis has been supported by Philip Swift, creator of Bitcoin data aggregator LookIntoBitcoin, who has also pointed out that four-year cycles may be over.
There will be no “blow-off top”
In this way, Bitcoin halvings have had a predictable impact on cryptocurrency prices. The year after a halving was applied, there were bullish peaks, which were followed by bearish corrections, before the process was repeated again.
However, this time it has been very different, as the blow-off top, which should have taken place at the end of 2021, has not happened; contrary to what happened in 2017 and 2013.
Does this mean that Bitcoin will become more bearish over time? No, according to Woo's thesis, Bitcoin will enter a new phase in which Prices will be much more unpredictable, as supply and demand increases and four-year cycles disappear.
What will happen to the price of Bitcoin?
In this sense, the end of the Bitcoin's four-year cycles It is closely related to the widespread adoption of cryptocurrency, something that is already starting to happen.
Recently, some countries like Malaysia, Brazil and Mexico have begun to study the possibilities of making Bitcoin legal tender, while others, such as Honduras, have indicated that they will follow the path of El Salvador to legalize cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, the market of institutional investors in Bitcoin continues to grow, both covertly and openly. This is demonstrated by the blockchain data, which indicates that the majority of Bitcoin transactions have been made by institutional whale addresses.
