The crypto market faces its largest options expiration ever, with $28.000 billion at stake. We analyze the impact on Bitcoin and Ethereum following a volatile year-end.
The financial analysis platform Greekslive has confirmed that December 26 marks an unprecedented milestone in the history of digital assets, as almost $28.000 billion in notional value expired during the day.
According to the data, this event represents the largest annual derivatives expiration on record and tests the resilience of a market that has struggled to find stability in the last quarter. The report details that some 267.000 Bitcoin options They reached their end with a put/call ratio of 0,35 and a maximum pain level located at $95.000, a figure that contrasts with the current price of the cryptocurrency in the market.
For its part, Ethereum faced its own challenge with the expiration of 1,28 million optionswhich presented a put/call ratio of 0,45 and a maximum pain point anchored at $3.100.
The figures above revealed a notable discrepancy between institutional investor expectations and the current reality of cryptocurrency prices, with Bitcoin hovering around $88.500 and Ethereum struggling to stay near $2.900 at the time of writing. Industry experts had already suggested that this gap between the spot price and the optimal strike price for options sellers would inject friction into intraday trading as the market attempts to absorb the massive volume of liquidations.
Trade BTC and ETH frictionlessly on Bit2MeThe impact of a bearish quarter and investor sentiment
The context in which this historic expiration of crypto options occurs is complex and reflects the exhaustion of market participants after a difficult end to the year.
This fourth quarter has been particularly tough for cryptocurrencies. Analysts from various sectors agree that the market has been marked by a continuous price decline, resulting in four consecutive months of losses. For many, this pattern, visible on technical charts, has reinforced a sense of caution among market participants and left the market sentiment in a zone dominated by uncertainty.
The Fear and Greed index hovers around 27 pointsThis reading highlights the distrust of investors, both retail and institutional. This sense of fragility resonates with the market's recent memory, when on October 10th there was a mass liquidation of about 20.000 billion dollars. That episode was interpreted as a necessary purging of the excess leverage that had accumulated in the previous weeks.
However, this time the context is different. The options expiration coincides with the typical liquidity contraction that accompanies the holidays, a scenario that amplifies volatility and limits the ability to react to sharp movements. Even so, implied volatility levels remain within moderate ranges compared to the peaks of previous months. Bitcoin is hovering around 40%, while Ethereum is around 60%, suggesting that much of the negative impact of this massive sell-off had already been priced in by the market before the holiday season.
The renewal strategy towards March
As the settlement of these contracts is completed, the attention of the major players is quickly shifting to the future. Data indicates that the volume and proportion of locked trades increased significantly before expiration, driven primarily by demand for rollover or renewal of positions. This means that investors are not abandoning ship, but rather shifting their bets to the first quarter of next year.
The quarterly options expiring in March now account for the largest share of open interest. According to the platform's experts, representing more than 30% of the total.
This reconfiguration of the board shows a preference for buying options well above the current price, suggesting that, despite the prevailing short-term fear, there is a latent expectation of recovery by the beginning of the year.
Once this record expiration threshold is overcome and positions are realigned for March, the market could find the bottom it needs to try to reverse the negative trend that has dominated the end of 2025.
Market outlook following the massive liquidation of crypto options
The closing of this $28.000 billion chapter leaves the crypto ecosystem at a turning point where clearing old positions could pave the way for a new market structure. While market volatility typically increases in the hours leading up to expiration, removing this massive block of open interest frees up capital and reduces the burden of outstanding contracts that often act as a drag on price action.
Traders are now closely watching whether Bitcoin and Ethereum options can recover to key levels or if the market will need a longer consolidation period before validating the projected bullish bets for March.
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